Global population estimates tend to be imprecise. I will wait for official sources like the UN Population devision or similar to publish figures to resolve the market.

I will consider the population to have peaked if it is estimated to be more than 0.1% below the previous year and the drop is not attributable to a specific non recurring world event.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "YES" if the global population peaks in a specific year, based on data published by the United Nations Population Division (UNPD). A peak is defined as the year after which the total global population begins a sustained decline, where the population in subsequent years is estimated to be at least 0.1% lower than the peak year.

To resolve this market, the decline must not be attributable to a single, non-recurring catastrophic event (such as a major war, pandemic, or natural disaster) that causes a temporary drop followed by a resumption of population growth. The UNPD's World Population Prospects (available at https://population.un.org/wpp/) will serve as the primary source of truth. If the UNPD revises its historical or future projections, the most recent data available at the time of resolution will be used.

Background

Estimating the timing of a global population peak is subject to significant uncertainty, as it relies on complex models of fertility rates, life expectancy, and migration patterns. Different organizations often provide varying projections; for instance, the UNPD, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), and other demographic research groups frequently update their forecasts based on new socioeconomic data. As of current projections, many models anticipate the global population to peak sometime in the late 21st century, though estimates vary widely regarding the exact year and the total number of people at that peak.

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