Will the South Korean total fertility rate exceed 2.0 at any point before 2051?
Basic
14
719
2051
13%
chance
  • This question refers to the area held currently (12/1/2023) by the South Korean state.

  • By "total fertility rate" I mean "children born per woman." If advances in technology make that statistic meaningless (e.g., artificial wombs are created) AND most reputable sources switch to tracking "children born per person" or some variant instead, I will also resolve this question to "yes" if "children born per person" exceeds 1.

  • I will use the CIA world factbook (or other authoritative source, pending agreement in comments) to determine resolution.

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/about/archives/2021/field/total-fertility-rate/country-comparison

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Made this market because of a reddit argument about cultural/genetic adaptation rates to adverse fertility. I've bet it down to 1% as a show of confidence in my position.