Will the South Korean total fertility rate exceed 2.0 at any point before 2051?
20
1kṀ897
2051
15%
chance
  • This question refers to the area held currently (12/1/2023) by the South Korean state.

  • By "total fertility rate" I mean "children born per woman." If advances in technology make that statistic meaningless (e.g., artificial wombs are created) AND most reputable sources switch to tracking "children born per person" or some variant instead, I will also resolve this question to "yes" if "children born per person" exceeds 1.

  • I will use the CIA world factbook (or other authoritative source, pending agreement in comments) to determine resolution.

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/about/archives/2021/field/total-fertility-rate/country-comparison

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I'm still interested in this question, but I did a back-of-the envelope calculation that told me I have a less than 1% chance of still being on this site when it comes time to resolve this question (inclusive of early-resolution conditions.) To anyone following this question, should I...

  1. just let the question continue indefinitely, and let some interested trader ask a site moderator to resolve it at the appointed time?

  2. Resolve the market at its current percent value?

  3. [Write-in option]

Made this market because of a reddit argument about cultural/genetic adaptation rates to adverse fertility. I've bet it down to 1% as a show of confidence in my position.

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