Will any EU country achieve fertility rate >=2.0 by the end of 2032?
14
190Ṁ435
2032
19%
chance

Currently the highest is France at 1.84 (live births per woman). Note that the measure I'm using here is slightly different from "replacement rate" (which is 2.1).

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 YES

Feels like a lot of crazy things can happen by that time, including new revolutionary fertility treatments, possible mass migration to Europe from population with high fertility, or at least one European country going super crazy hard in pro-fertility policies...

interesting. Best chance is Czechia?

Which countries have the highest and lowest fertility rates in Europe?
The fertility rate in the EU increased by 8 per cent over the last two decades but the number of children being born has started to gradually fall.
predictedNO

@PC Being Czech, I wouldn't get my hopes up - although the government is pushing through some increase in (currently relatively low) parental benefits, many new austerity measures directly contradict that (such as canceling kindergarten subsidies).

People are also trading

Will the fertility rate of South Korea increase from 2023 to 2025?
96% chance
Will US fertility rates go above 2 births per woman before 2030?
10% chance
Will US birth rates rise above 2.0 at any point before 2030?
11% chance
Will the US fertility rate surpass 2.1 for any year in the next decade?
12% chance
Will the South Korean total fertility rate exceed 2.0 at any point before 2051?
15% chance
Will Any Top-8 Economy See Its Birthrate Rise 5% from Its Lowest post-2015 Point by 2025?
31% chance
Will Japanese Total Fertility be below 1.2 by 2030?
77% chance
US Total Fertility Rate in 2030?
Will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level before 2027?
26% chance
Will South Korea's total fertility rate exceed 1 by 2035
17% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy