Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the market will resolve to YES if a new record for the warmest year is set in any year up to and including 2030.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ60 | |
| 2 | Ṁ15 | |
| 3 | Ṁ14 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ4 |
People are also trading
It seems 2024 was the warmest one yet on record, according to this link, should this resolve the market? @Gugra https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_surface_temperature#Warmest_years
@JussiVilleHeiskanen hello Jussi I actually created this market because 2024 was the current year on record , I will resolve if this year or the next ones till 2030 become the new warmest year on record
@Gugra The question was created in April 2024 so the 2024 global average temperature for the year was not known at that time. Monthly data like Feb 2024 data was available but the record month is September 2023. So I do not follow your "2024 was the current year on record" comment.
It looks like it should resolve yes to me.
For some extra ref.
https://berkeleyearth.org/march-2024-temperature-update/
Estimated Probability of 2024 Annual Average final rankings:
1st – 59%
So at claim creation time 4 April 2024, above was not quite yet available and 2024 being a new record was likely but far from certain.