📖Will @ScottAlexander write a classic (over 1000 likes) before 2025?
Basic
39
Ṁ31k
resolved Jan 14
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if a post made on Astral Codex Ten between 2023-09-08 and 2024-12-31 (inclusive) receives more than 1000 likes by the end of 2024. UTC times will be used. The post will need to have this many likes long enough for me to confirm. Only posts by Scott count. For example, the book review contest submissions do not count (unless one of them is later revealed to have been written by Scott).

See also:

/Tossup/will-scottalexander-write-another-b-8293250ed56d

/Tossup/will-scottalexander-write-an-alltim

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predicted YES

@Tossup ? We're now at 1,004 and still counting.

@SEE That’ll do, thanks

predicted YES

And as of my last visit to https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-the-long-run-were-all-dad , it has 1,002 likes.

predicted YES

990 likes on https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-the-long-run-were-all-dad. We're 1% short of resolving YES!

predicted YES

994! Seven away!

predicted YES

996! Five away!

predicted YES

998! Three away!

predicted YES

999!

1,000!

Now 962 likes on https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-the-long-run-were-all-dad , meaning that post just needs 39 more likes over the next 362 days (this is a leap year, people) for this question to resolve YES ("over 1000 likes").

And, of course, even if that post doesn't manage to get 39 more likes, there's that same 362 days for @ScottAlexander to write some other post this year that gets over 1,000 likes.

predicted YES

So, while the rate of new likes has predictably declined, https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-the-long-run-were-all-dad is now at 923 total likes. That means if it averages 7 more likes a month for the next eleven months, this question resolves YES with a month to spare.

predicted YES
predicted YES

Now 820, so 180 likes from YES.

bought Ṁ32 YES at 88%

@SEE I mean, my current profile picture (the same as on Manifold) is by far my most liked Facebook post ever, so if ACX readers are anything remotely resembling my Facebook friends...

predicted YES

OK, don't tell me https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-the-long-run-were-all-dad will not make it. (643 after just 23 hours)

Anyone have a suggestion for a number of likes and timescale that would correspond to an all-time post like Meditations on Moloch?

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