Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Iran signs a formal peace agreement or comprehensive deal with one or more Middle Eastern countries (Arab states, Israel, or other regional actors) that includes binding commitments on nuclear policy, regional security, or other substantive matters. The agreement must be publicly announced and documented by official government sources or major international news outlets.

This market resolves NO if no such agreement is signed, or if only preliminary statements of intent or non-binding frameworks are reached without formal treaty or accord.

Background

As of late February 2026, Israel and the United States engaged in coordinated joint attacks on various sites in Iran, starting a major conflict aimed at regime change. The attacks included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Prior to the military escalation, Oman's Foreign Minister reported that Iran had agreed both to never stockpile enriched uranium and to full verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). However, divisions between the US and Iran included US demand that Iran end all nuclear enrichment activity, on the future of its ballistic missile programme, and the timing of sanctions relief.

In March 2023, after discussions brokered by China, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to reestablish relations. The two countries have reopened their respective embassies and have exchanged official visits, including an April 2025 visit to Tehran by Saudi Arabia's defense minister.

Considerations

Both Iran and Arab Gulf states, especially the mediators (Oman and Qatar), believe that mediation has caused more insecurity for them, whether in the form of Israeli strikes on Doha in September 2025 or strikes on Oman, or Iran being struck twice as negotiations were taking place. The region has entered a post-rapprochement era and is heading toward calculated militarization. The United Arab Emirates called on the United States, Israel and Iran to return to the negotiating table as the conflict across the Middle East enters its fifth day.

This description was generated by AI.