Will the SpaceX Starship successfully deorbit and land softly in the ocean on the first launch attempt? | Manifold

Will the SpaceX Starship successfully deorbit and land softly in the ocean on the first launch attempt?

38

750Ṁ9120

resolved Apr 20

Resolved

N/A

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to Yes if the Starship performs a controlled hover ~<250m above the ocean surface.

Resolves to No if the ship is lost at any earlier point in the launch.

Resolves to Undecided/Invalid if SpaceX decides not to attempt the soft landing.

Close date updated to 2023-12-31 4:00 pm

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Currently SpaceX is not planning to perform a soft landing. I think it's reasonable to resolve this N/A early.

How will this market resolve if they do a launch attempt but don't actually launch? A scrub is technically a launch attempt, but the ship is not lost.

I would suggest the market doesn't close in that situation, and it only closes if it explodes at any time before or during launch. But it would be nice to have that confirmed.

predictedNO

@Mqrius Agreed, scrub doesn't count as a launch, but if it explodes on the pad during a launch attempt I'll cal that a failure.

People are also trading

When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?

Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?

Will SpaceX's first Starship Cargo mission successfully land on the moon?

Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?

When will Starship successfully land for the first time?

Successful Starship splashdowns before orbital launch attempt?

Will SpaceX's HLS lander successfully land on the moon on the first attempt?

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

Related questions

When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?

Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?

Will SpaceX's first Starship Cargo mission successfully land on the moon?

Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?

When will Starship successfully land for the first time?

Successful Starship splashdowns before orbital launch attempt?

Will SpaceX's HLS lander successfully land on the moon on the first attempt?

Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?

By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?

Will SpaceX successfully land Starship on Mars before January 1st 2030?

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