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MANIFOLD
Will the SpaceX Starship successfully deorbit and land softly in the ocean on the first launch attempt?
38
Ṁ750Ṁ9.1k
resolved Apr 20
Resolved
N/A

Resolves to Yes if the Starship performs a controlled hover ~<250m above the ocean surface.

Resolves to No if the ship is lost at any earlier point in the launch.

Resolves to Undecided/Invalid if SpaceX decides not to attempt the soft landing.

Close date updated to 2023-12-31 4:00 pm

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Currently SpaceX is not planning to perform a soft landing. I think it's reasonable to resolve this N/A early.

@TonyJackson

How will this market resolve if they do a launch attempt but don't actually launch? A scrub is technically a launch attempt, but the ship is not lost.

I would suggest the market doesn't close in that situation, and it only closes if it explodes at any time before or during launch. But it would be nice to have that confirmed.

predictedNO

@Mqrius Agreed, scrub doesn't count as a launch, but if it explodes on the pad during a launch attempt I'll cal that a failure.

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