Description:
This market resolves based on changes in YouGov’s Democratic and Republican Party favorability trackers.
As of September 14 2025, YouGov reports:
• Democratic Party: 33.9 % favorable, 64.0 % unfavorable → net −30.1
• Republican Party: 34.6 % favorable, 47.7 % unfavorable → net −13.1
That’s a net favorability gap of 17.0 points (Democrats −30.1 vs Republicans −13.1).
The Democrats “win” if the first YouGov tracker posted more than one full month after the end of the shutdown shows this net favorability gap has narrowed (i.e., the Democrats’ net favorability minus Republicans’ net favorability is better than −17.0).
If the gap is unchanged or larger (≤ −17.0), the market resolves NO (Republicans “win”).
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/the-republican-party-favorability
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/the-democratic-party-favorability
If yougov stops publishing these polls, I’ll be worried and probably N/A this market.
Update 2025-11-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there are discrepancies in the YouGov data, the market will resolve based on what YouGov reports it had on September 14th, 2025, regardless of any subsequent changes or corrections to those numbers.
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@DannyqnOht thats weird. . . . Maybe I got it wrong in the description. But that feels like a weird mistake to make, or maybe it was updated. I dunno. I’m glad the net is the same. In any case, in the event that something changes I’ll go with what yougov says it had on sep 14th 2025.
Ok, napkin math:
Eyeballing the charts, expecting reversion to the mean, democrats spread should go down and republicans spread should go up
So the quantity (DemocratGap - RepublicanGap) should go up, which would be a win for democrats as defined.
I personally am of the opinion that people like what the democrats are doing here as of sept 14th (very poor data on that) which supports the idea of "democrats win"
And... if shutdown ends in a month, this pays out in probably 3 months (because it looks like the yougov polls are monthly.)
(Disclosure: This post has two goals, 1) raise the price so I can sell in less than 3 mo; 2) add clarity so people can see if I'm right or wrong, and bet against me in an informed way)