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@traders just got around to thinking about this and will look at the yougov files tonight on my computer. I’m assuming (since it seems like the answer should be yes) that it will be fairly unambiguously YES. (So if pretty much every demographic tilted to the dems in December). Since this isn’t a totally how I said this would resolve though, I wanted to give no holders a chance to make their argument. I’ll probably resolve this tomorrow otherwise.

The republican numbers for Sept 14th seem to have changed?

I'm now seeing

42.3 - 55.4 -> net - 13.1

so same net, but 🤷

@DannyqnOht thats weird. . . . Maybe I got it wrong in the description. But that feels like a weird mistake to make, or maybe it was updated. I dunno. I’m glad the net is the same. In any case, in the event that something changes I’ll go with what yougov says it had on sep 14th 2025.

@TonyBaloney seems there’s no change since what Danny reported, will this resolve NO if there’s no additional site update by market close then?

@Mochi I’m surprised that yougov hasn’t updated since September. In the rules I said that I would N/A the market if yougov doesn’t keep this up. Also, Now that there’s another shutdown on the horizon I could see how this market could be confusing. . . . Dunno though. I’ll probably extend it for another month or so before n/a’ing it. Open to suggestions.

@TonyBaloney YouGov didn't update the trackers, but they kept publishing polls. Not quite the same data as the trackers, but close, and the Democrats improved a lot in the one published one month after the shutdown. Since you haven't fully committed to resolving only based on the trackers, you can (and in my opinion should, because it upholds the spirit of the market) resolve YES, or alternatively N/A.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_FJyfDu9.pdf

@ChaosIsALadder I don’t think the numbers are exactly the same but I m interested to hear the creators judgement

@Mochi @TonyBaloney Yeah, the numbers are not exactly the same. But close, also from YouGov and the net favorability difference from these polls still changed from -10 in September to -1 in December. That's a clear win for the Democrats.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_igbnSqu.pdf

@ChaosIsALadder sorry. I just see September ib what you sent me. But I’d didn’t scour the ninety pages. If you send me a link to a yougov site with the dem v republican favorability I’ll resolve it.

@TonyBaloney oh wait. I see now. Let me ponder. Also it has to be a month after the shutdown ended for it to count.

@ChaosIsALadder yeah. This is a good point. Is there a link published by yougov. I just wanna verify that this is where it comes from and it was done a month after the shutdown ended. If it’s essentially the same poll, published by yougov, and was conducted a month after the shutdown ended (I forgot the date offhand) I’ll resolve yes.

@TonyBaloney Shutdown ended on November 12, so the December 12–15 report fits the bill.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_States_federal_government_shutdown

@Mochi @ChaosIsALadder however as soon as I said that i realized that I’m not really able to go into the crosstabs of a 90 page document and decide what the number would have been. I’d much prefer a clean final number. About to be cooking dinner soon so I’m not going to race to judgement on this. But I agree that if it’s the same poll they do as the one the sep number are based on, and there’s a clear way to get to a final number, it’s yougov, etc etc, it doesn’t have to be in the link I listed.

@TonyBaloney Sure, take your time. You can find the official link for December here (This week’s Economist/YouGov poll, pages 38 / 39):

https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/53750-trumps-age-a-third-term-tourist-screening-and-the-economy-december-12-15-2025-economistyougov-poll

For September the official link is here (This week’s Economist/YouGov poll, pages 41 / 42):

https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/52988-donald-trump-job-approval-presidential-attributes-charlie-kirk-shooting-political-violence-political-parties-democratic-party-republican-party-jeffrey-epstein-immigration-september-12-15-2025-economist-yougov-poll

Ok, napkin math:

Eyeballing the charts, expecting reversion to the mean, democrats spread should go down and republicans spread should go up

So the quantity (DemocratGap - RepublicanGap) should go up, which would be a win for democrats as defined.

I personally am of the opinion that people like what the democrats are doing here as of sept 14th (very poor data on that) which supports the idea of "democrats win"

And... if shutdown ends in a month, this pays out in probably 3 months (because it looks like the yougov polls are monthly.)

(Disclosure: This post has two goals, 1) raise the price so I can sell in less than 3 mo; 2) add clarity so people can see if I'm right or wrong, and bet against me in an informed way)

Eh, good enough. I need the mana more than I need to wait the 3 mo.