Description:

This market resolves based on changes in YouGov’s Democratic and Republican Party favorability trackers.

As of September 14 2025, YouGov reports:

• Democratic Party: 33.9 % favorable, 64.0 % unfavorable → net −30.1

• Republican Party: 34.6 % favorable, 47.7 % unfavorable → net −13.1

That’s a net favorability gap of 17.0 points (Democrats −30.1 vs Republicans −13.1).

The Democrats “win” if the first YouGov tracker posted more than one full month after the end of the shutdown shows this net favorability gap has narrowed (i.e., the Democrats’ net favorability minus Republicans’ net favorability is better than −17.0).

If the gap is unchanged or larger (≤ −17.0), the market resolves NO (Republicans “win”).

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/the-republican-party-favorability

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/the-democratic-party-favorability

If yougov stops publishing these polls, I’ll be worried and probably N/A this market.