Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?
54
381
1k
2035
44%
chance

By "yes" means that flying cars is available and regulated on the public market to buy and fly it with a drivers license of sort

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I thought we already had?

predicts YES

It looks like this market isn't getting any clarity from the creator, so I made a similar one that is a little more precise and focused. It's less about the technological availability, because street legal flying cars already exist, and more about the beginning of mass adoption.

https://manifold.markets/NickAllen/will-at-least-1-of-new-car-sales-be?r=Tmlja0FsbGVu

predicts YES

@Yves Gyro planes where presented as a viable solution to the problem in the “Where is the flying car” book.

predicts YES

You should refine the type of FAA / EASA certification, define street legality, define a number of passengers and define what “commercially available” exactly means. The Pal-V gyro plane car can be pre ordered as of today.

For type of certification I recommend EASA / FAA CS/Part 23,25,27,29 and in addition National Ultralight law (even though unlikely as a car+plane seems to be unlikely to be lighter than 600kg).

predicts YES

@Yves This company is working on a gyro plane car that is “in the last phase of certification” with EASA and will be commercially available “in 2024”. They will also certify with FAA.

predicts NO

Lmao

What's a flying car? Helicopters are already available to the uber-rich. Do you mean a street-legal aircraft?

@Lsusr That is correct

predicts NO

@NickAllen yes, this book has more details and the full history. this is done, people / the FAA / regulations don't want it

predicts YES

@Ernie what?

sold Ṁ107 of YES

Exiting the market because it's unclear about what is being asked

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Currently available flying cars are either single-seat ultralights which don't have any airworthiness certification or experimentals. If those don't satisfy what you mean with this question I can help you drill down. Do you want something which is certified? Something which can carry passengers? Something which is legally allowed to fly over congested areas and crowds and in cities? Something which requires a type rating on a pilots license, or a driver's license, or no license at all?

Regardless, by 2035 the answer is probably 90%+ for "yes". By 2030? Depends on your answers to the questions above.

@NickAllen Yes my intention with the bet was a flying car that is certified, can carry passengers and something that can fly in cities just like normal cars. How do I proceed with the bet? Change the description or can I cancel it? My apologies for not being specific enough.

predicts YES

@TobiasSowaaed change the description is fine. Specify that they need to be street legal, commercial available, and have a type certificate. That should about cover it.

@SamuelRichardson Added description, Ty:))

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@TobiasSowaaed This appears to be a flying car that I can buy on the public market. I mean, I have to contact a representative to buy it, but I also have to go via a car dealer to buy a car:

https://www.pal-v.com/en/explore-pal-v

A quick Google brings up around 10 more with prices for each:

https://www.beautifullife.info/automotive-design/10-real-flying-cars/

> fly it with a drivers license of sort

Well, you'd probably need both a drivers license and a pilots licence to drive and fly it.

I'd say this market is pretty save to resolve as YES right now 🤣

predicts YES

@SamuelRichardson well, if the intent is something you can hop in, with passengers, with a driver's license and fly wherever (following the appropriate rules) then it's not a 'yes' yet. Right now there's heavy restrictions on what you can legally do with the commercially available flying cars.

predicts YES

@NickAllen So what your market should really be is: "Will you still require a pilots licence to fly a vehicle by 2035?"

predicts YES

@SamuelRichardson The Pal-V will satisfy the definition of this market (Type Certified, Street legal, Commercially available) soon ish. It can be preordered for 25K-35K, they seem to be on the finish line with an EASA certification and it already seems to be street legal. Refer to my latest comment for a screenshot from a company presentation at a conference in May 2022.

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