Will there be a fully autonomous commercial airline flight before 2030
Will there be a fully autonomous commercial airline flight before 2030
17
1kṀ9825
2030
12%
chance

the airplane have taken off and landed free of any human help with paying passengers on board.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
11mo

Regularly scheduled? Available to the general public? Mainstream route and airport?

11mo

@GustavoCalais It must be available to the general public. It doesn’t have to be regularly scheduled it can be experimental, but it must carry passengers who payed for the ticket. Any airport that has commercial airlines sometimes will count.

1y

Based on the question close date, I think you meant to ask "before 2030" instead of "before 203".

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules