Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040?

#Cars #Self-Driving Vehicles #Air travel #Flying cars

281

Ṁ3.2K

Ṁ825

2041

11%

chance

ALL

Within any single country with a population of at least 10 million people.

"Flying cars" are herein defined as vehicles which are legal to operate on the roads of the country, and which also can be operated as legal aircraft in that same country.

The two operations modes are not required to be covered by the same license. No type certificate, production certificate, or equivalent is required (although they are expected and hoped for). Fleet operators renting vehicles out to the public would qualify if the sales quantity is met.

An example of a "yes" resolution in the US would be a street-legal car which is also legal to fly under 14 CFR 23, 25, 27, 91, 103, or equivalent, and can be operated by anyone with a driver's license and appropriate flight certificate (or none, in the case of §103 and/or potential self-driving capability).

This question is focusing on sales because some street legal flying cars already exist in 2023, but there is no widespread adoption and it's not clear when/if mass-production and adoption of flying cars will arrive.

Hopefully the resolution criteria are clear enough; please provide recommendations if any further clarification is needed, and I'll review and add to the description.

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bought Ṁ50 of NO

Roadable aircraft simply aren’t practical from any point of view.

bought Ṁ70 of NO

please realize that if we do have flying vehicles they will be drones not cars. People have ran the maths and it makes no sense to have a plane and car in one. Just a drone vtol. No is a good bet IMO because a drone won’t count.

@Elliot_dev if it's street-legal and also flies legally and makes up more than 1% of new sales, then it would count. Being operated by the person sitting in it is irrelevant to the resolution. See the last part of this paragraph from the description: "An example of a "yes" resolution in the US would be a street-legal car which is also legal to fly under 14 CFR 23, 25, 27, 91, 103, or equivalent, and can be operated by anyone with a driver's license and appropriate flight certificate (or none, in the case of §103 and/or potential self-driving capability)."

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Elliot_dev And as far as whether it makes sense to build a combo vehicle instead of just an air vehicle and a ground vehicle, that's essentially the question here. Does the convenience beat the inefficiency? Will FSD be relevant, if it happens?