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Hi everyone, thanks for the discussion!

I decided to resolve this YES. Tesla did announce a flying car!

The official roadster webpage is pretty convincing that they mean this to be a flying car, and call it as such. Even though it's not a traditional flying car that can go long distances, I think it still qualifies technically, and they announced it was flying, so it would be hard to resolve this the other way.

@traders Wow, the new roadster flying short distances is an edge case I didn't consider. What do you all think?

@JamesGrugett ordering page for Tesla Roadster Rocket says it can fly and has a "full flight system"

ChatGPT and media say "yes"

@JamesGrugett not invested but my two cents: it's just big hopping. airborne? yes. flight? no. doesn't count until they start playing soccer in the air

@Stralor plenty of mainstream news sources called it a flying car as well as Elon and Tesla. Lol at air soccer. Full flight control on their order page sounds like more than a hop and also it already hovered.

@JamesGrugett wright brothers first powered flight 12 seconds. 5-10 seconds with 30 minutes to a few hours to repressuruze is powered flight

@JamesGrugett I like Brian's idea of using Kitty Hawk as the threshold. I.e., it has to last at least 12 seconds.

@JamesGrugett Bigger Musk promises

Also this is a perfect example of my pet theory; quoting myself:

Elon Musk has a pet theory that our universe is a simulation that always selects for the most ironic or amusing outcome. My pet theory of Musk-related predictions is that all news and updates are exquisitely constructed to be maximally ambiguous.

@dreev He has been telling people about this for some time now. But most don't take him literally :D

@dreev but it’s based on an announcement, not actually having done it. Once Elon musk said it was a flying car, he announced that Tesla was working on a flying car.

@JamesGrugett did Tesla announce that they were working on a flying car? Yes. Whether the roadster flies or not is not the point.

@TonyBaloney Seems like an announcement to me https://www.tesla.com/roadster

Persuasive. I still see at least a bit of ambiguity though. It's like "how many legs does a dog have if you call a tail a leg?". (Answer: 4, because calling a tail a leg doesn't make it a leg.)

Like, suppose Kitty Hawk is the right threshold. Then this is a jumping car, not a flying car. They're just announcing that they're working on a jumping car and incorrectly using the term "flying car" in making that announcement. So does the market ask whether they'll announce "we're working on a flying car" or does the market ask whether they'll announce they're working on a flying car?

Another way to clarify it: do they have to have a genuine intention to follow through or does it suffice for them to say the words? I think my own implicit assumption when seeing the question was that intention to follow through was implied. But I definitely think it should be incumbent on traders to ask clarifying questions like that before trading and accept the market creator's judgment.

@brianwang they said they plan to go over snake river canyon. If they go at 30 degree ramp or more then it

will take over 13 seconds to clear it. Flight thrusters will be needed to control Thr flight. Thrusters are needed for safe landing. Time and distance would exceed wright brothers.

@brianwang Vp Lars said the thrust middle version with 200 liters had 5 seconds of thrust. The rocket trim has two tanks with a total of 600 liters. This should be enough for 15 seconds of thrust. Snake river is about. 1600 feet. They will need thrust to get the distance. Maintain control and thrust to land safely. I think they will need levels of thrust through a 20-30 second journey. Other fast cars and the evel rocket car failed.

@JamesGrugett

This seems to have resolved yes. At least the new roadster demonstration flew for a bit and musk described it as a flying car.

Elon teased a flying car on Joe Rogan Experience podcast. https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/1ol72rg/elon_just_said_on_rogan_that_tsla_will_be/

@ChristophUSOtz roadster demo matches what was teased as flying car back then.

@JamesGrugett Elon says a lot of thing these days, and it seems like he's only getting worse. What type of announcement will trigger a YES?

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