This is the same question that Bryan Caplan recently bet on: Abortion Bet - by Bryan Caplan - Bet On It.

I've adjusted the timeframe of the bet to be more interesting to Manifold, since most people wouldn't bet on an event that's 10 years away. I plan to add future years as options and extend the close date until this takes place or until Caplan wins his bet in 2034.

I've also made this an unlinked market so that each year can be resolved NO once it ends. If any year resolves YES, all future years will also resolve YES.

For reference here are the exact terms of Caplan's bet with Michael Crone:

"I, Michael Crone, send you $100 right away. You, Bryan Caplan, pay me the inflation-adjusted equivalent of $900 (my $100 plus your $800) in 2024 dollars if on June 1, 2034, surgical abortion is illegal in all states of the US except in cases of risk to the life of the mother.

Note the phrase surgical abortion. This phrase is meant to have the bet resolve in my favor even if other types of human embryo killing procedures (such as might be used for IVF) or if known abortifacient pills or pills (such as some currently used as birth control) whose abortifacient nature is in dispute are still in use. I don't think it's as likely that early embryo killing will become illegal and that leaves enough of a gray area with pills that I think the surgical abortion phrasing is best.

I also want to state for the record that I estimate this as predictively equivalent to a 6:1 bet on the abortion ban question due to mortality/etc. risks. I say this only because I am offering this bet to make a point about the abortion ban likelihood."