If a Republican wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?
Plus
18
แน8722027
8%
Banned in all cases
45%
Banned with exceptions
19%
Banned after 6 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
16%
Banned after 15 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
27%
Banned after 20 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
27%
Banned after 24 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
78%
None of the above
If a Republican does not win, this question will be resolved N/A
Multiple answers can resolve yes as follows:
"Banned in all cases" and "Banned with exceptions" are mutually exclusive. If either of them resolve YES, then "Banned after X weeks" will resolve YES.
If "Banned after X weeks" resolves YES, "Banned after Y weeks" (Y > X) resolves YES
If "None of the above" resolves YES, nothing else resolves YES (obviously)
"exceptions" includes life of the mother, rape/incest, and other exceptions that affect (cumulatively) <10% of pregnancies. If abortions for teenage pregnancies were be completely banned, and no other abortions were restricted, this market would resolve "None of the above."
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
If Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2024 elections?
87% chance
If Trump is elected President in 2024, how many states will have restricted abortion a year later?
If a Democrat wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?
If Joe Biden wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?
If Biden is elected President in 2024, how many states will have restricted abortion a year later?
Will Missouri legalize abortion in the 2024 election?
77% chance
Will Arizona have an abortion referendum on the ballot in 2024?
87% chance
IF SCOTUS rules AGAINST state legislatures in Moore v. Harper before 2024, will a Republican win the 2024 Presidential election?
46% chance
Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?
33% chance