If a Republican wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?
9
91
Ṁ382Ṁ575
2027
1D
1W
1M
ALL
8%
Banned in all cases
31%
Banned with exceptions
19%
Banned after 6 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
27%
Banned after 15 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
27%
Banned after 20 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
27%
Banned after 24 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)
66%
None of the above
If a Republican does not win, this question will be resolved N/A
Multiple answers can resolve yes as follows:
"Banned in all cases" and "Banned with exceptions" are mutually exclusive. If either of them resolve YES, then "Banned after X weeks" will resolve YES.
If "Banned after X weeks" resolves YES, "Banned after Y weeks" (Y > X) resolves YES
If "None of the above" resolves YES, nothing else resolves YES (obviously)
"exceptions" includes life of the mother, rape/incest, and other exceptions that affect (cumulatively) <10% of pregnancies. If abortions for teenage pregnancies were be completely banned, and no other abortions were restricted, this market would resolve "None of the above."
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will Colorado have abortion as a referendum question in 2024?
77% chance
Will fewer than 26 states be restrictive on abortion by the end of 2026?
37% chance
Will fewer than 26 states be restrictive on abortion by the end of 2030?
67% chance
Will the Republican party win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
48% chance
Will Florida have a referendum on abortion in 2024?
91% chance
Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?
42% chance
Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
33% chance
IF SCOTUS rules AGAINST state legislatures in Moore v. Harper before 2024, will a Republican win the 2024 Presidential election?
47% chance
Which of the following States will be restrictive on abortion by the end of 2040?
Will fewer than 20 states be restrictive on abortion by the end of 2040?
55% chance