Will LLM progress stall in 2024?

23

1kṀ6026

resolved Feb 2

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if there are no more improvements in WinoGrande and BigBench-Hard beyond the state of the art as of market creation. Gemini Ultra 1.0 results will be considered included in this and do not count, even if leaderboards haven't been updated.

To the best of my knowledge that means 83.6% on BBH https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/gemini/gemini_1_report.pdf

And 87.5% for WinoGrande https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.08774v4 though Gemini Ultra is not reported yet. Please let me know if I am missing something in comments.

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