Will LLMs Daydream by EOY 2026?
7
100Ṁ1592026
20%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
BACKGROUND
https://gwern.net/ai-daydreaming
RES CRITERIA
Resolves YES if a significant amount of at least one top lab's compute is known to be used for "Daydreaming" (as described in Gwern's post) by EOY 2026.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Thinking Machines releases an LLM by EOY 2025?
33% chance
What will Manifolders mostly use LLMs for, by EOY 2025?
Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?
32% chance
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
59% chance
What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?
34% chance
Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?
82% chance
Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?
72% chance
What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?
26% chance