Will Manifold successfully guess who I am thinking of within a week? (Insider info and mana prize for winner)
36%
chance
14

I have one specific extremely obscure person / being / character in mind and your job is to figure out who. Hash to retroactively prove that I did not change my answer:

53016q8qpp73rqn66ro6r5sq45q02rp1p6709qoq8108ro3o5s833457sn60po25

Everyone can ask one yes-or-no question per 12h (can be on or off topic), and I will reply with yes, no, grey area, ask you to rephrase if it's unclear, or in rare cases refuse to answer if it would reveal vitally confidential information.

If you are the first to correctly guess the answer, I'll let you know in DMs so you can bet big on YES before I tell everyone and resolve, and I'll give you 50% of the total earned new trader bonuses.

I will not bet on this market to maintain neutrality.

Inspired by the recent wave of similar markets.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Feel free to answer after my 12 hours has elapsed.

Could they be considered part of the new wave of alt-right SV technofascism?

Are they a woman?

Hey @4fa and @Quroe could I interest you two in playing so it's not a boring fixed outcome?

@TheAllMemeingEye I'm a bit overwhelmed by the recent wave of similar markets, already – after participating in only one of them… 😅 But I'll give it a try.

@4fa fair enough, I won't make another if it's too oversaturated

Well given that almost nobody is playing it seems basically guaranteed to resolve no lol, I think there would be a fairly slim chance even if there were several users asking optimum binary division questions

Are they a character in an animation?

Credit to @Wott for the idea of using a hash to prove integrity back in /GastonKessler/manifold-plays-hangman

reposted

Believe me, this one is really obscure

bought Ṁ50 NO

@TheAllMemeingEye it’s Donald trump isn’t it?

~~@RKCarn it's the word "obscure"~~

ignore my caffeine-starved brain, it's a person not a word lol

@RKCarn haha funny but no, plausibly nobody else on the entire site might've heard of them, but if possibilities are narrowed down enough with more general questions, it might be possible then to come across them by looking through names in the narrowed down context

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy