Who am I thinking of? (guessing game)
6
300Ṁ2896
resolved Jun 1
100%99.5%
J.D. Vance
0.3%
Ilya Sutskever
0.0%
Howard Lutnick
0.1%
Doug Burgum
0.1%
Lee Zeldin
0.0%Other

Joining the trend!

  • I'm thinking of a specific real person or fictional character. At market closing time (and not before), if someone has added the person I'm thinking of to the market, it will resolve to the person. If the person I'm thinking of has not been added to the market, it will be extended for one more week.

  • Each user can ask one yes-or-no-question in the comments every twelve hours, which I will try to answer in a reasonable time (note at time of market creation: I might go to bed in a couple hours but I'll answer the first batch of questions quickly)

  • I may reject meta-questions that reveal too much (e.g. "have they already been added to this market") at my discretion.

  • Update 2025-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the person they are thinking of is a real person.

  • Update 2025-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that the person they are thinking of identifies as male by gender.

  • Update 2025-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator does not think the person they are thinking of is a fan of or involved with the MCU franchise.

  • Update 2025-05-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that the person they are thinking of does not currently hold a board position at a tech company.

  • Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that the person they are thinking of has held elected political office at the national or state level.

  • Update 2025-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that the person they are thinking of is not the head of one of the 15 Executive Departments.

  • Update 2025-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that the person they are thinking of is alive.

  • Update 2025-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will resolve the market earlier than the December 31, 2025 closing date, effectively overriding this date for the timing of resolution.

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wait I accidentally forgot how this works when I set this up (because I copied the rules from a different market) and set the market closing time to December 31

@ZaneMiller I'm going to pretend that didn't happen and just resolve it

sold Ṁ0 YES

@ZaneMiller Haha, I was going to write December 31 is pretty late. 😂

bought Ṁ100 YES

Were they born in Middletown, Ohio?

@redcat yes

I'm pretty sure Lee Zeldin was ontop, because some traders used A.I. and pasted in the market description and A..I. summaries of creator comments. The problem with that is, that not all clues were added as an A.I summary of creator comments.

Are they alive?

@asmith yes

Is this person the head of one of the 15 Executive Departments?

Is this person the head of one of the 15 Executive Departments?

@MarkS no

Are they part of the current US administration?

@redcat yes

bought Ṁ10 YES

Have they ever written a book?

@TheAllMemeingEye yes

bought Ṁ5 YES

@ZaneMiller okay, that rules out Lutnick who was the subject but not the author of a book

Has this person ever held elected political office at the national or state level?

@redcat yes

bought Ṁ20 YES

Have they ever worked at OpenAI?

@TheAllMemeingEye no

@ZaneMiller

Sutskever co-founded and was a former chief scientist at OpenAI. In 2023, he was one of the members of OpenAI's board

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilya_Sutskever

It seems Ilya is out

Does the person currently hold a board position at a tech company?

@redcat no

Do they currently live in the United States?

@bohaska yes

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