Manifold plays hangman!
60
1kṀ8979
Feb 28
13%
B
5%
C
14%
D
12%
F
12%
H
5%
J
13%
K
27%
L
13%
M
1.7%
O
13%
P
1%
Q
22%
R
19%
S
16%
T
0.9%
U
14%
V
9%
W
9%
X
0.3%
Y

Word:_i_ing

Incorrect guesses:2/6:

E,A

The banner art might not be up to date!

Background Hangman is a word guessing game where players try to guess a hidden word one letter at a time. Each incorrect guess results in drawing part of a hanging stick figure. The game is lost if the figure is completed (typically after 6 wrong guesses) before the word is solved.

Resolution Criteria

  • Every day, at ~8am UTC+1 the letter with the highest % (first in alphabetical order if there is a tie) will resolve.

  • Each letter in the alphabet (A-Z) will resolve YES if it appears in the hidden word, NO if it does not appear in the word.

  • I will reveal the hidden word and mark resolutions of the letter that didn't get resolved after the game concludes.

  • The game concludes when either:

    1. The word is successfully guessed (all letters revealed)

    2. The hangman figure is completed (6 incorrect guesses)

  • Capitalization is ignored - guessing 'a' or 'A' counts as the same letter.

  • If a letter appears multiple times in the word, guessing that letter once reveals all instances.

Considerations

  • The hidden word will be in English and contain only letters (no numbers, spaces, or special characters).

  • I obviously won't bet on this market.

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Common letter strategy won't catch vibing, jiving, Viking,...

An interesting question is how many words are left that won't be caught by a path containing common letters in the remaining set?

Day 6

Word State

_ I _ I N G

Guesses

E ❌ A ❌ I ✅ N ✅ G ✅

Art

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Possible Words

living rising riding timing hiding hiring citing firing hiking mixing fixing filing wiping viking wiring biting diving piling biking liking siding piping tiring sizing siting biding tiling miming dicing oiling kiting tiding jiving riling siring liming wiling riving diming wising vibing liping yijing biling wiking diking miking miring vising xiling jibing yiming yixing riting viding ximing siming riming tiying lising piking hising witing wiving cising liling hiving diting vicing miting ricing riping wifing siking siping sixing fifing fiking

Will Probability

/GastonKessler/will-manifold-win-at-hangman

@probajoelistic I love it. It looks better than what I could have posted.

@probajoelistic It seems we're using different starting population lists. Your list has some words that mine doesn't.

biding biking biting cising citing dicing diking diting diving fifing fiking filing firing fixing hiding hiking hiring hiving jibing jiving kiting liking liming living miking miming miring miting mixing oiling piking piling piping ricing riding riling riming riping rising riving siding siping siring siting sixing sizing tiding tiling timing tiring vibing vicing viking vising wifing wiking wiling wiping wiring wising witing wiving

I used some guy's web app which has the advantage of sorting by common words first. I doubt any of the extra words my list has will be right, though, given that it's supposed to be "not easy, but doable"

@probajoelistic I agree, that hint is huge. I culled my list manually and ran odds with that list instead.

@probajoelistic I kind of like firing. It would be in the zeitgeist

sold Ṁ4 NO

Description is out of date

EDIT: no it’s not

@JimHays how so?

@GastonKessler Nvm, sorry!

Based on a list of common words that fit:

l, r: 23.08%

d, t: 19.23%

f, h, k, p, s: 11.54%

b, c, m, v, w, x: 7.69%

o, z: 3.85%

a, e, j, q, u, y: 0%

As everyone expected, "G" is part of the word.

@GastonKessler And we learn that the word is not GIVING, but little else

@JimHays not very encouraging. Might have been preferable to have had a miss

opened a Ṁ10 YES at 6% order

VIBING 😎

@probajoelistic Just to be clear, this like doesn't mean anything about wether this word is right or not.

@probajoelistic I'm starting to think my list of words is not as complete as I had imagined.

@Quroe what was the origin of your word list? If it's incomplete, is there a way to scrape Wiktionary for all words with an English entry? They have quite a few really obscure words

@Quroe thanks 👍

@TheAllMemeingEye Just be sure to add "miming" and "vibing" if you use it.

Piping fits too. I think we are on a loser

@JussiVilleHeiskanen We're down to 62 options. It's not going to be easy, but we can at least profiteer along the way.

biding

biking

biting

cising

citing

dicing

diking

diting

diving

ficins

fiking

filing

firing

fixing

hiding

hiking

hiring

hiving

jibing

jiminy

jiving

kiting

liking

liming

lipins

living

miking

miring

miting

mixing

oiling

piking

piling

ricing

ricins

riding

riling

riming

riping

rising

riving

siding

siping

siring

siting

sixing

sizing

tiding

tiling

timing

tiring

vicing

viking

vising

wifing

wiking

wiling

wiping

wiring

wising

witing

wiving

@Quroe L is both likely and eliminates a lot

@Quroe why no miming?

@Quroe you've eliminated double letters, haven't you

filled a Ṁ9 NO at 30% order

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Holy heck, you're right. I originally thought that it was just because it wasn't in my initial word list -- which it wasn't -- but when it didn't appear after I added it, you were on to something. Fixed.

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