Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if a novel disease (pathogen or condition) that is first identified between now and December 31, 2025, causes more than 100 confirmed human deaths globally by December 31, 2027. It resolves to NO otherwise.

For this market:

• A "novel disease" means a previously unidentified pathogen, strain, or medical condition

• The disease must be first scientifically documented and recognized by relevant health authorities (such as WHO, CDC, or equivalent national health agencies) between now and the end of 2025

• Deaths must be directly attributed to this novel disease by official health authorities

• The 100+ death count must be reached by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC

Background

New infectious diseases continue to emerge as pathogens evolve, jump species barriers, or develop in changing environments. Recent examples of emerging diseases include COVID-19, which was identified in late 2019 and caused a global pandemic.

As of early 2025, several infectious diseases are under close surveillance, including bird flu (H5N1), which has shown an increase in human cases, though it does not currently transmit easily between humans. Other concerns include new variants of existing pathogens or entirely new "Disease X" scenarios that health authorities actively monitor for.

Considerations

The likelihood of this market resolving to YES depends on:

• The rate of novel pathogen emergence

• Surveillance capabilities to detect new diseases

• The virulence and transmissibility of any newly identified pathogen

• The effectiveness of public health responses to contain outbreaks

Public health systems have improved surveillance and response capabilities following the COVID-19 pandemic, potentially limiting the impact of newly emerging diseases.