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MANIFOLD
Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?
66
Ṁ300Ṁ3.1k
2027
32%
chance
10

Andes virus is a member of the hantavirus family responsible for the MV Hondius cruise ship outbreak.

The only vaccine against hantaviruses in use is Hantavax which targets Hantaan river virus and Seoul virus, both "old world" hantaviruses, causing different symptoms than "new world" hantaviruses like the Andes virus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hantavirus_vaccine)

Moderna has been working on mRNA hantavirus vaccine, though this seems to target old world hantaviruses as well:

https://brusselssignal.eu/2026/05/korea-university-and-moderna-have-been-working-on-mrna-hantavirus-vaccine-since-2023/

Resolves YES if any officially sanctioned vaccine trial in humans occurs before close date, where:

  • the vaccine has preclinical data suggesting possible efficacy against Andes virus

  • the trial has testing efficacy against Andes virus among its goals

As @Cactus noted, there was a vaccine tested earlier (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37380156/). This market will only consider trials that happen after market creation (specifically, that the vaccine is administered to humans after market creation, if the trial started or was designed earlier, it still counts).

The results of the trial are not relevant for resolution.

I will not bet on this market.

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https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37380156/

Should this already resolve yes? @AIBear

@Cactus Interesting, I didn't do a very thorough search and so I missed that one. I think that it is typically implicitly assumed that "after market creation" is part of the market criteria and so I won't consider this. Let me know if you've lost any mana based on this discrepancy and I'll be happy to managram it to you.

bought Ṁ150 NO

@AIBear I actually made mana selling to @unweidly so probably he deserves the refund more than I do

@Cactus @unweidly Anybody who suffered loss based on the imprecision, can claim a refund :-)

@AIBear Can I claim a refund? Thanks

@unweidly Yes. It seems that you bought 805 YES for M 600, which is now worth ~M320. So an M280 to refund - does that sound fair?

@AIBear Sounds great!

reposted

I'm glad to see more Hantavirus markets, and this is an interesting one!