How many seats will Reform UK win in the 2026 Senedd election?
3
Ṁ175Ṁ504May 7
32 seats
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
99%
Above 0
94%
Above 8
87%
Above 16
76%
Above 24
54%
Above 32
34%
Above 40
11%
Above 48
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will pro-independence parties win a majority of seats at the 2026 Welsh election?
48% chance
How many seats will Conservatives win in the 2026 Senedd election?
6.3
How many seats will Plaid Cymru win in the 2026 Senedd election?
31.3
What party will win the 2026 Welsh elections?
How many seats will Greens win in the 2026 Senedd election?
8.8
How many seats will Liberal Democrats win in the 2026 Senedd election?
2.6
How many Reform councillors will have left the Party by the May 2026 elections.
How many seats will Labour win in the 2026 Senedd election?
13.9
What will Reform UK's change in number of council seats in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections be?
1,466
How many Senedd seats will be held by left or center-left parties after the 2026 Senedd election?
56.1