Resolution criteria

• This market will resolve to YES if, between July 5, 2026, and August 1, 2026 (11:59 PM UTC), there is at least one officially documented round or session of peace negotiations or technical talks (either direct/face-to-face or indirect via mediators like Pakistan, Qatar, or Oman) between representatives or delegations of the United States and Iran.

• A "peace talk" is defined as any official, state-sanctioned negotiation or meeting aimed at implementing the June 17, 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, resolving issues related to the ceasefire, frozen assets, regional maritime security, or the nuclear program.

• The indirect technical talks in Doha that concluded on July 1–2, 2026, occurred before the tracking window for this market and do not count toward a YES resolution. At least one subsequent distinct session of talks must begin on or after July 5, 2026, to resolve this market as YES.

• This market will resolve to NO if no further rounds of negotiations or official diplomatic meetings between the two parties are initiated before August 1, 2026.

• Credible reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Al Jazeera, or the Associated Press) will serve as the primary sources of truth for resolving this market.

Background

Following the military conflict that began in February 2026, the United States and Iran signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on June 17, 2026. The MOU extended their ceasefire for 60 days to negotiate a comprehensive settlement concerning the Strait of Hormuz, frozen financial assets, and Iran's nuclear program.

After technical talks wrapped up in Doha on July 1–2, 2026, further negotiations were briefly paused during the state funeral for Iran's late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Reports from regional outlets indicate the next round of negotiations is anticipated to resume around July 11, 2026, with potential direct talks proposed for the third week of July.

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