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MANIFOLD
Will 110 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day while Trump is President?
8
Ṁ1kṀ572
2029
64%
chance

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Must occur after market creation, July 9th. (which aligns with the start of the Iran war, of course this happened on a semi daily basis pre war.)

Market context
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Market creation was 9 July 2026 (for those who don't want to go digging)

bought Ṁ200 YES

@HillaryClinton You should put the date you're counting from in the description (market creation date I assume?)

@archvenison Yes, anything after market creation, otherwise this question would auto-resolve yes.