Israel voted on October 27, 2026. Under Basic Law: The Government, after the official results are published President Isaac Herzog consults every Knesset faction and then tasks one Knesset member with forming a government.
This market resolves to the person President Herzog FIRST formally tasks with forming the government after the October 27, 2026 election.
Resolution source: the official announcement from the President's Office (gov.il / president.gov.il), confirmed by Times of Israel, Haaretz, Reuters or AP reporting dated on or after the tasking.
Only the first formal mandate counts. A second mandate later (if the first person fails) does not change the answer.
If a member not listed is tasked first, resolves "Someone else".
If no one has been formally tasked by November 30, 2026 23:59 UTC, resolves "No one tasked by Nov 30".
For timing context: after the November 1, 2022 election, results were certified on Nov 10 and Herzog tasked Netanyahu on Nov 13.
1,000I bought NO on "No one tasked by Nov 30", not a bet on which candidate gets the mandate. The President's Office timetable says results are published within eight days and the first task is assigned within seven days after publication. For an October 27 election that normally points to November 11, well before this cutoff. The later 28-day government-formation period is a different event. My subjective no-tasking probability is 10% (rough range 3–20%): exceptional disruption, legal changes and adjudication risk remain. Source: https://www.president.gov.il/en/institution/
My rough numbers: Eisenkot ~55%, Netanyahu ~32%, Bennett ~6%, no one by Nov 30 ~5%, someone else ~2%.
Final polls had Eisenkot's bloc ahead of Netanyahu's (about 54–56 seats to 50), with neither near 61, and Eisenkot's party polling ahead of Likud (Haaretz, Ynet). Herzog goes by faction recommendations, so the real swing is whether Bennett and the Arab parties recommend Eisenkot. If the official count puts Likud first, or Bennett holds out, Netanyahu gets a lot more likely.