This market is of type INDEPENDENT_MULTIPLE_CHOICE with five fixed options representing the survival duration of the Israeli government formed after the next legislative elections (scheduled for October 27, 2026). Each option will resolve independently to YES or NO based on the official outcome.

• Upcoming Election: Refers to the 2026 Israeli legislative election (or any rescheduled date if postponed).

• Government Formed: Defined as a cabinet that successfully receives a vote of confidence in the Knesset and is sworn into office.

• Government Dissolution: The tenure of the government ends on the day early elections are officially triggered (e.g., the Knesset passes a law to dissolve itself), a constructive vote of no confidence succeeds, or the government is otherwise officially dissolved or replaced.

• Interim/Caretaker Period: The duration of the government does not include any caretaker or interim period after the Knesset has dissolved or early elections have been officially triggered.

• Rotation Governments: A planned rotation of Prime Ministers within the same coalition agreement (without the collapse of the coalition) does not end the government's tenure.

• A government won't be formed: Resolves YES if the newly elected Knesset is dissolved and new elections are called without any government successfully winning a vote of confidence and being sworn in.

• Full term: Resolves YES if the government serves its full legal term without early dissolution, meaning the subsequent legislative elections are held on their legally scheduled date (typically four years after the 2026 election, around October 2030) rather than being moved forward. Otherwise, resolves NO.