Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2026? | Manifold Markets

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2026?

41

closes 2026

10%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2026, then this market resolves to NO. Otherwise resolves to YES.

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Yoavbought Ṁ1,000 of NO

I find this quite funny for some reason

Jargad Mazriah bought Ṁ100 NO at 10%

Yoav bought Ṁ1,000 NO at 10%

Rowan Evans bought Ṁ50 NO at 10%

Reid Johnson bought Ṁ10 NO at 10%

Fedor created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 15%

Fedor created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 11% (cancelled)

PC sold Ṁ26 NO at 10%

Daniel Tello bought Ṁ23 NO at 10%

Andrew Hebb sold Ṁ30 NO at 10%

Jeremy Sanderson bought Ṁ1 NO at 10%

Jonathan Ray bought Ṁ3,000 NO at 10%

MayMeta bought Ṁ10 NO at 10%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 9% 🤖

Jelle bought Ṁ10 NO at 10%

CatneeBot filled limit order Ṁ471/Ṁ1,000 YES at 10%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 9% 🤖

Daniel Tello bought Ṁ450 NO at 10%

duck_master bought Ṁ20 NO at 10%

Scrooge McDuck filled limit order Ṁ250/Ṁ250 NO at 8%

Scrooge McDuck created limit order for Ṁ250 NO at 11%

Scrooge McDuck created limit order for Ṁ250 NO at 15%

Robert Cousineau bought Ṁ50 NO at 10%

Scrooge McDuck created limit order for Ṁ500 NO at 20%

Scrooge McDuck created limit order for Ṁ500 NO at 33%

Scrooge McDuck created limit order for Ṁ500 NO at 50%

Scrooge McDuck created limit order for Ṁ500 NO at 67%

Scrooge McDuck created limit order for Ṁ500 NO at 80%

PA bought Ṁ25 NO at 10%

Katja Grace bought Ṁ85 NO from 11% to 10%

Timothy sold Ṁ68 NO from 10% to 11%

42irrationalist bought Ṁ200 NO at 10%

rockenots bought Ṁ100 NO at 10%

Simon Grayson bought Ṁ500 NO at 10%

Martin Randall bought Ṁ100 NO at 10%

Light created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 12%

Primer bought Ṁ100 NO at 10%

Ivan bought Ṁ50 NO at 10%

Timothy bought Ṁ40 NO at 10%

Timothy bought Ṁ50 NO at 10%

Light bought Ṁ50 NO at 10%

PC sold Ṁ10 NO at 10%

KermitGoose bought Ṁ38 YES at 10% 🎁

Savio Mak bought Ṁ10 NO at 10%

PC sold Ṁ20 NO at 10%

wylderai bought Ṁ10 NO at 10%

JuJumper bought Ṁ14 NO at 10% 🎁

Mira created limit order for Ṁ1,000 NO at 40%

Mira created limit order for Ṁ1,000 NO at 30%

Mira created limit order for Ṁ125 NO at 50%

Mira created limit order for Ṁ125 NO at 45%

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