Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2026?
1.8k
2025
2%
chance

If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2026, then this market resolves to NO. Otherwise resolves to YES.

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Why the updated close time?

@benjaminIkuta The market closes before it resolves. this prevents late comers from swooping in with 6 figure bets and taking away value without taking the early adopter risk. It still resolves according to the headline.

@TeddyWeverka why do you want to prevent traders from taking value from Manifold?

@benjaminIkuta It is paramutual betting.

@TeddyWeverka This market is the fixed-payout type, not parimutuel. It shows the type in the market details. That means later trading can't cause any harm to earlier traders.

@TeddyWeverka Please direct your questions in discord, it will get you the best answers the quickest.

predicts NO

@TeddyWeverka The only loophole I can see in the guidelines to explain it is:

If a market falls under the following but seems valuable, it may still be left subsidised.

It is of course no surprise to me that some mods find some markets more valuable than others. As we already know, it only takes one to take action, and the rest mostly avoid any confrontation.

@deagol This is all done manually, usually when there's an inconsistency it's just that no one noticed. I believe the policy is to unsub all of these now, so I have now done so for the 2030 market.

@deagol Thanks for the list! Should all be fixed now.

predicts NO

Is there a reason why this market has been delisted? That’s sent me absolutely tumbling down the league!

predicts NO

@SimonGrayson This market is still publicly listed; I assume you mean it's been unranked. From the community guidelines on when markets will be unranked:

Market is about something that can never be resolved (eg. “Will all humans die by AI”?) or could only ever resolve one way.

@IsaacKing The guidelines are selectively enforced. These two AI doom markets have the same trading volume, but only one got Unranked Unsubsidized. https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r https://manifold.markets/TeddyWeverka/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-8f67976258d3

predicts NO

@TeddyWeverka I'm leaving the N/A ones ranked because useful prediction of future market movement could happen there.

@IsaacKing I don't buy the argument that this tweek makes it more useful. It makes it less predictive, the market author's arguments notwithstanding.

predicts YES

aaaah c'mon moderators, just NA those markets and ban the creator for misresolves, I need to go back to cryosleep

⚠UNRESOLVED & Re-Opened

📢Resolution Made Early Without Proof

📝If @TeddyWeverka would like to N/A the market, that is their choice.

📝If Creator has proof, please post it.

Resolving early since the answer is obvious. Should this resolution be wrong, I will rise from my grave and payout those yes votes.

predicts YES

@TeddyWeverka I hate to come back to this app, but degenerates like you..

@TeddyWeverka why is the answer more obvious now than it was seven months ago?

predicts NO

@AndrewHebb These weren't real markets. They were a scheme to defraud Manifold central bank of liquidity subsidies and trader bonuses. Once admins cut off the money, there's no more point for fraudsters to keep running the "markets".

@TeddyWeverka But you have no Mana (currently)

@TeddyWeverka If the answer is obvious, do you have a source?
And why not just N/A and admit this was a ridiculous AI doom market(imo)?

@SirCryptomind Resolving markets years in advance to YES/NO and claiming the answer is obvious sets a bad precedent.

If there is a problem with the market, resolve the market to N/A and return the money and bonuses, and admit that the market might've been a mistake.

"But you have no Mana (currently)" @SirCryptomind I could always purchase Mana to pay off the dead traders. Or perhaps my account will be positive by then