Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

2060

19%

chance

ALL

This Market will resolve to no if any humans are still alive at the end of 2060. Otherwise, the ai will resolve it to yes.

Creating this market as I am interested in the timeline as well as the outcome and we already have the same event on a 2100 timeline.

Link to 2100 market: https://manifold.markets/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th?r=SmFtZXNCaWxscw

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Isaac Kingbought Ṁ279 of NO

The market description doesn't match the title; could you clarify which one is actually correct? If humanity is still around in 2060 and this market's resolution has been delegated to an AI, how should it resolve?

James Billsis predicting YES at 14%

@IsaacKing fair commentary, I've updated to make it explicitly requiring humans to be alive in order to resolve no. If humans are not alive then the AI resolves it yes.

Isaac Kingis predicting NO at 14%

@JamesBills Humans being uploaded, augmented, or in cryonic or suspended animation all count as being "alive", right?

James Billsis predicting YES at 13%

@IsaacKing Do you think a free will caveat would resolve this?

Isaac Kingis predicting NO at 13%

@JamesBills Not sure what you mean

James Billsis predicting YES at 14%

@IsaacKing for example; alive with out free will/agency resolves yes

Isaac Kingis predicting NO at 14%

@JamesBills How does making the market depend on a complex philosophical topic that may not even be well-defined help in any way? :)

James Billsbought Ṁ35 of NO

@IsaacKing I'm going to take that as a no :)

Mark Ingraham

The obvious answer is no, but the trading bot pumped this question with massive loans to get a yes.

The bot has 50k in loans against 170k in profit, with 90% of the profit being a handful of long term wrong bets. Once these bets saturate it will have to make real bets and collapse.