This Market will resolve to no if any humans are still alive at the end of 2060. Otherwise, the ai will resolve it to yes.
Creating this market as I am interested in the timeline as well as the outcome and we already have the same event on a 2100 timeline.
Link to 2100 market: https://manifold.markets/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th?r=SmFtZXNCaWxscw
The market description doesn't match the title; could you clarify which one is actually correct? If humanity is still around in 2060 and this market's resolution has been delegated to an AI, how should it resolve?
@IsaacKing fair commentary, I've updated to make it explicitly requiring humans to be alive in order to resolve no. If humans are not alive then the AI resolves it yes.
@JamesBills Humans being uploaded, augmented, or in cryonic or suspended animation all count as being "alive", right?
@IsaacKing Do you think a free will caveat would resolve this?
@JamesBills Not sure what you mean
@IsaacKing for example; alive with out free will/agency resolves yes
@JamesBills How does making the market depend on a complex philosophical topic that may not even be well-defined help in any way? :)
@IsaacKing I'm going to take that as a no :)
The obvious answer is no, but the trading bot pumped this question with massive loans to get a yes.
The bot has 50k in loans against 170k in profit, with 90% of the profit being a handful of long term wrong bets. Once these bets saturate it will have to make real bets and collapse.
@MarkIngraham what bot are you talking about?
Sticking to binary as the success of this market depends on people trading on future expectations rather than the outcome.