Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

This Market will resolve to no if any humans are still alive at the end of 2060. Otherwise, the ai will resolve it to yes.

Creating this market as I am interested in the timeline as well as the outcome and we already have the same event on a 2100 timeline.

Link to 2100 market: https://manifold.markets/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th?r=SmFtZXNCaWxscw

Get Ṁ200 play money
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predicts NO

@Daniel_MC this market adds up to 38% prior to 2060, at time of writing, which is pretty close to the 40% here. Maybe more by luck than judgement.

predicts NO

@MartinRandall I’d think “wiped out” a higher bar than 1b left

Can’t wait for an AI to resolve this market YES to pay out my AI-enhanced uploaded conciousness

bought Ṁ85 of NO

Does Catnee have inside information? They are a bot.

bought Ṁ279 of NO

The market description doesn't match the title; could you clarify which one is actually correct? If humanity is still around in 2060 and this market's resolution has been delegated to an AI, how should it resolve?

predicts YES

@IsaacKing fair commentary, I've updated to make it explicitly requiring humans to be alive in order to resolve no. If humans are not alive then the AI resolves it yes.

predicts NO

@JamesBills Humans being uploaded, augmented, or in cryonic or suspended animation all count as being "alive", right?

predicts YES

@IsaacKing Do you think a free will caveat would resolve this?

predicts NO

@JamesBills Not sure what you mean

predicts YES

@IsaacKing for example; alive with out free will/agency resolves yes

predicts NO

@JamesBills How does making the market depend on a complex philosophical topic that may not even be well-defined help in any way? :)

bought Ṁ35 of NO

@IsaacKing I'm going to take that as a no :)

The obvious answer is no, but the trading bot pumped this question with massive loans to get a yes.

The bot has 50k in loans against 170k in profit, with 90% of the profit being a handful of long term wrong bets. Once these bets saturate it will have to make real bets and collapse.

predicts YES

@MarkIngraham what bot are you talking about?

@ErickBall Michael's

Sticking to binary as the success of this market depends on people trading on future expectations rather than the outcome.