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MANIFOLD
Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2028?
3
Ṁ1kṀ838
2027
87%
Texas
87%
Florida
87%
South Africa
63%
Navajo Nation
61%
Japan
59%
Poland
41%
Italy
34%
Cambodia
29%
Ukraine
26%
Vietnam

Resolution criteria

An option in this market will resolve YES if, at 23:59:00 local time on 1 January 2028, same-sex marriages have legal recognition in the stated jurisdiction.

Each option will otherwise resolve NO.

Clarifications

For the purpose of this market, a jurisdiction may recognise same-sex marriages without necessarily performing them. If, for example, a jurisdiction only recognises same-sex marriages performed extraterritorially, this is sufficient to resolve YES.

It is not sufficient, however, for a jurisdiction to allow informal same-sex marriages with no legal recognition.

I may trade in this market. If I believe the resolution of this market is likely to be contentious, I will either sell my shares or entrust a Manifold mod with resolving the market.

Market context
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