Will Singapore recognise gay marriage by 2030?

Singapore has removed the old law 377A that made homosexuality illegal. It also reaffirmed that marriage is defined under law as between a man and a woman, and that this can only be changed by parliament. Although conservative the country’s younger population are accepting. Singapore wants to continue to attract foreign talent.

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On 22 August 2022, Home Affairs and Law Minister K. Shanmugam added that the Constitution would be amended to protect Parliament's right to define marriage instead of the judiciary, which is the Supreme Court of Singapore, leaving open the possibility for Parliament to legalise same-sex marriages or civil unions through a simple majority.

bought Ṁ30 YES from 33% to 35%
predicts NO

Several reason I think this is unlikely:

  • In Singapore, public housing is tie to marriage status, with married couple being given priority over singles. Recognising marriage status of gays means that the government has to rethink its public housing scheme. But then housing is being used by government to encourage reproduction and nuclear family.

  • This might disrupt the delicate balance of the multiracial, multi-religious society. 18% of Singapore adult is muslin and 17% is Christian.

  • The government has recently solidified the current definition in the constitution. Amendment requires 2/3 of parliament.

  • Opposition party also does not clearly supports this. It fact two members were against the repeal.

  • Singapore does not have a big problem attracting talents and capital so this won’t be a deciding factor.

  • This might increase the tension with neighbouring Muslim counties.

  • Singapore does not have a history of changing its domestic policy when faced international pressure.

All in all I think Singapore government is quite pragmatic and is unlikely to do it because this is very sensitive domestically and internationally, and won’t clearly advances its national interest.

bought Ṁ100 NO from 29% to 26%
predicts NO

@footgun also in terms of international pressure I think we're past the peak period of gay rights social pressure, with the mainstream LGBT conversation moving to internal conversation about trans issues.

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@ShakedKoplewitz If neighbouring countries change on this, the Singapore might follow. It is very unlikely that Singapore will take the regional lead on this. But then neighbouring counties are unlikely to change due to religion reasons.

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