https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-kongolandwalker-learn-to-do-on?r=S29uZ29MYW5kd2Fsa2Vy

I was giving advice to Fion about how to learn one arm pullup, and then we decided to see, whether I would be able to generalise my approach to the next, much harder, thing.

I found this one really funny

This is definitely one of the funniest ones I've seen:

a hilarious market from slightly earlier days (don't miss the comment section!)

Experts will agree that a major derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL trauche correction will happen by new years day, 2023

Resolved NO. This market rezolves to YES if experts agree that a derivative mark-to-market LONGVOL tranche correction will happen by new years day, 2023. The metric I will use to determine that is pretty zimple: consensus! Post tweets, screenshots of discord communications, substack comments, faceb…

This is one of my favorites :)

https://manifold.markets/dreev/is-the-probability-of-dying-in-the?r=dmduc2g

Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?

92% chance. You’re offered a gamble where a pair of six-sided dice are rolled and unless they come up snake eyes you get a bajillion dollars. If they do come up snake eyes, you’re devoured by snakes. So far it sounds like you have a 1/36 chance of dying, right? Now the twist. First, I gather up an…

not eligible for bounty because I can see you participated, but this one still makes me giggle

Whalussies vs Minnussies: Will whalussies get 69 times as much as minnussies with their meagre but numerous rationalussy

Resolved YES. Yes = whalussies No = minnussies The whalussies have large, powerful rationalussies. The minnussies have meagre but numerous rationalussies. Will the whalussies have 69 times as many shares as the number of minnussies when the market closes? If there are alt accounts, they will be c…

https://manifold.markets/Aella/has-robin-hanson-ever-pooped-himsel

Has Robin Hanson ever pooped himself in public?

Resolved d7c1ef3286ab. In an upcoming interview with Robin Hanson, I intend to ask if he’s ever shit his pants in public after the age of 14.

It was pretty amazing we got insider trading on this one.

This bounty and /Stralor/show-me-your-best-question are still open, and I'm direly looking for new stuff to bet on.

atm I'd esp like to see stuff about:

• Climate

• Ecology / Biology

• Games

• Psychology & Medicine

• Socioeconomics

• Jokes & Playfulness

• (Almost) anything that has a clear resolution but is challenging to answer

Things I'm bored of (Don't Send):

• Politics

• AI

• Crypto

• Stocks

• Elon Musk / SpaceX / Tesla

• Anything Silicon Valley or big tech

idc if it's short-term or long-term.

I've refreshed the bounty, and I'm now upping the reward to 50 mana per question that qualifies!

All previous submitters are also welcome to submit again, and I've removed the limit on how many questions you can submit at once.