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Wasn't the answer always obviously yes? He was a baby at some point.

@LukeHanks After the age of 14

@tailcalled 🤦

If the interview really happened when Roman Hauksson said it did, this seems manipulative, because it was only 8 hours after market opening, and you gave the answer to multiple people.

@ShadowyZephyr

It does look like the interview happened last night at Vibecamp.

@Joshua Wait, this interview was PUBLIC? Why was this market pushed so far past the interview date then?

@ShadowyZephyr Ugh, there's a very simple non-nefarious explanation. The default manifold close time is 1 week. That's all it is, I'd bet a lot on it.

I attended the interview in person, and he said yes.

@RomanHauksson Did he distinguish whether or not it was a shart?

@Joshua

Also good job guys. I'm sure we're really making a great impression on the father of prediction markets...

@RomanHauksson Uh, how were you able to attend it before market closed?

Also, if you know it's Yes, why would you say that? Why wouldn't you just wait for the market to go back down and buy more Yes? It's literally free mana for you

@ShadowyZephyr A sudden and ill-advised expulsion of previously private information does seem kabbalistically appropriate for this market.

@ShadowyZephyr I was able to attend it before the market closed because the market will close after the event happened? Not exactly sure what you mean by this question. I decided to comment because I thought that was the thing to do, to make information relevant to the market public via a comment, but maybe that's not the thing to do? I don't take Manifold too seriously atm.

@RomanHauksson Nah that is the thing to do, I was just wondering what was going on here. The fact that the event happened like right after the market opened was weird to me.

Are you planning to resolve based on his answer, or based on your best guess of truth after asking him, or something else?

@Tyler31 Based on his answer, otherwise "He'll refuse to answer" wouldn't be an option, I assume

everyone has sharted themselves a little, ever in their life

I'd bet at high confidence that, if he does answer "Yes", it will somehow not be embarassing for him at all, it will just land as more bold, generous Hansonian honesty about the reality of human nature.

But I can't bet, because I do not know how to operationalize this claim.