Probably one of my questions with greater potential impact but very little attention unfortunately

https://manifold.markets/Kraalnaxx/will-there-have-been-a-new-presiden?r=S3JhYWxuYXh4 I like this once since imo it's harder than it looks. The US is pretty accepting of Catholics at least, but will the circumstances be just right in the next 6 elections?

Will there have been a new president who isn't a Protestant or non denominational Christian after Inauguration Day 2045?

78% chance. New president means Biden will not resolve to YES, even if he has a non consecutive second term. I go by the presidents own stated beliefs while in office. If, for example, a president was a closet atheist but publicly a Protestant, resolve to YES if they "came out" while in office but not if they came out after leaving office. If the situation is truly unclear, I will spend 5 hours determining consensus from experts as to the President's religious belief, and go with said consensus, resolving to ambiguous only if consensus is unclear by 2045.

It's a very silly one:

https://manifold.markets/JubileeYoung/will-bci-enable-humanmonke-communic

Will BCI enable human-monke communication by 2034?

41% chance. Will we see brain-computer interface-assisted cross-species primate communication within the next 10 years? “Communication” here covers any quasi-linguistic form of mutual information exchange, both sending and receiving, that exceeds our current abilities to clearly, demonstrably commun…

A friend of mine and I regularly talk about third party presence in the primarily two-party system we currently have. The minimum 2% threshold has made this market about 50/50 for the upcoming 2024 election.

https://manifold.markets/LBeesley/will-a-third-party-candidate-receiv?r=TEJlZXNsZXk

Will a single third party candidate receive 2% or more of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

48% chance. For historical context, here’s the link to the Wiki of popular vote history: (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin)The leading third party candidate in the last three elections has been the Libertarian candidate: 2020 - Jo…

I'm pretty happy with this question of mine; I think it asks an important and concrete question about Lantern. I don't think it's gotten enough volume to be a very reliable forecast, but maybe posting it here will help with that!

If Lantern Bioworks successfully recreates BCS3-L1, will 10,000+ people receive the cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

33% chance. Lantern Bioworks is attempting to cure cavities via a treatment that modifies the oral microbiome; see this manifund proposal and this precondition market. (https://manifold.markets/embed/Austin/if-funded-will-lantern-bioworks-suc)If they achieve their bioengineering goal, will they be…

I don't know what my best question is, but here's one that I'm currently running and think is fun. Also, I need more people to vote in it!

https://manifold.markets/Alfie/will-usain-bolts-100m-record-be-bro?r=QWxmaWU

Will Usain Bolt’s 100m record be broken at the 2024 Enhanced Games?

42% chance. In reference to this tweet: [tweet]Conditional on the event actually taking place.

The whole story around the enhanced games is pretty weird and interesting.

A large part of their marketing is that a sprinter faster than Usain Bolt will compete and their replies are always filled with a bunch of very strong opinions so I thought it would make a good question.

Also cool because the their official twitter ended up sharing the market.

https://manifold.markets/PeterBerggren/what-proportion-of-john-von-neumann

What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?

30% chance. Conditional on more than 1,000 persons conceived through cloning from John von Neumann’s genome reaching age 20 or older by 2100, this question resolves PROB, where PROB is the proportion of persons conceived through cloning from John von Neumann age 20 or older who, in a survey, identif…

I'm pretty proud of this one:

Not my question but this is one of the more detailed and intriguing questions I've seen over here.

https://manifold.markets/dreev/is-the-probability-of-dying-in-the?r=dmduc2g

Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?

92% chance. You’re offered a gamble where a pair of six-sided dice are rolled and unless they come up snake eyes you get a bajillion dollars. If they do come up snake eyes, you’re devoured by snakes. So far it sounds like you have a 1/36 chance of dying, right? Now the twist. First, I gather up an…

I've refreshed the bounty, and I'm now upping the reward to 50 mana if your question qualifies!

All previous submitters are also welcome to submit again!

Thought it was funny because of how much activity it got despite the long-in-the-future resolution.