Related questions
Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?
28% chance
Will MIRI meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?
37% chance
Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?
49% chance
Will QACI alignment affect p(doom) more than 5%?
33% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
43% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
32% chance
By 2025, will Paul Christiano have updated his P(AGI doom) to over 50%?
20% chance
What will be the median p(doom) of AI researchers after AGI is reached?
Will mechanistic/transformer interpretability [eg Neel Nanda] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?
36% chance
What will be the average P(doom) of AI researchers in 2025?
21% chance