LeoGao avatar
Leo Gao
closes Dec 31, 2025
What will be the average P(doom) of AI researchers in 2025?
14%
chance

Currently this number is around 5-10% (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H6hMugfY3tDQGfqYL/what-do-ml-researchers-think-about-ai-in-2022).

I will take the mean of all surveys during the year of 2025 weighted by sample size, for all of the surveys that have no major methodological problems (as determined by discussion and/or voting in the comments of this market). Resolves to %.

The survey question has to specifically ask about the probability of AI-caused extinction.

Resolves N/A if no surveys happen during 2025, but if this looks like it's about to happen I might go and run my own survey by asking random people at some ML conference (no promises though).