In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles?

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

In 2025, will I believe that aligning automated AI research AI should be the focus of the alignment community?

When will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize?

Will any AI be able to formalize >=90% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?

Will some AIs have a right to own property in the United States before 2050?

At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?