When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles?
28
1kṀ2320
2029
20%
2025
52%
2026
73%
2027
79%
2028
Resolved
NO
2024

Every month for around the last 10 years, Jane Street (a trading firm) has released a difficult puzzle on their website: https://www.janestreet.com/puzzles/archive/.

Right now, the best publicly accessible AI (GPT-4 or Gemini Ultra) is not very good at this. I tried running the February puzzle through both and GPT-4 gave a few definitions and then said it was complex (though it did correctly simulate it afterward, even though the problem asked for an exact answer), and Gemini Ultra wasn't even close.

During which year will a publicly accessible AI be able to solve at least 6 of the 12 puzzles released during the year? (Resolves yes during each year this happens. Multiple years can resolve YES)

Clarifications

  • Must be a general-purpose AI model, not AlphaGeometry or something

  • Publicly accessible = reasonably accessible by an average interested member of the public

  • Puzzles must be solved with minimal human input, aside from maybe "Let's think step by step" or something. I want to basically just copy-paste the puzzle and have it give a solution.

  • The model is not allowed to search for the solution or copy from a similar puzzle, it must clearly be solving the puzzle.

  • Different AIs can solve different puzzles, as long as they are released before the end of the month of the puzzle they are solving and are still general-purpose. (If GPT-5 can solve all the puzzles and is released in October of this year, it can't retroactively count for the earlier puzzles)

  • Resolves N/A if the puzzles stop being published.

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