Will 2023 be the warmest year on record?

I will resolve this according to NASA's GISTEMP data here (or wherever it's available), counting an exact match (1.02) as a "no". If GISTEMP isn't available, I'll look at NOAA, HadCRUT, or Berkeley Earth temperature data, in that order. See also 2022.

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MartinModrak avatar
Martin Modrákis predicting NO at 20%
StevenK avatar
Stevenis predicting YES at 24%

@RyanMoulton NOAA, not pictured here, was at 7% after December data.

StevenK avatar
Stevenbought Ṁ20 of NO

@StevenK Down a tiny bit after January

Duncn avatar
Duncnbought Ṁ100 of NO

My guess is that Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai will cool us down, slightly, for a few years.

StevenK avatar
Stevenbought Ṁ250 of NO

NOAA seems to be saying 14%

Sjlver avatar
Sjlverbought Ṁ20 of NO

Base rate: four out of the last ten years in that dataset were the warmest on record (2014, 2015, 2016, 2020).

StevenK avatar
Stevenbought Ṁ5 of NO

Looks like La Niña early 2023 and El Niño late 2023, maybe averaging to about neutral. That very weakly suggests "not warmest" to me, but I don't know.