Will 2023 be the warmest year on record? | Manifold Markets

Will 2023 be the warmest year on record?

2024

70

29%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

I will resolve this according to NASA's GISTEMP data here (or wherever it's available), counting an exact match (1.02) as a "no". If GISTEMP isn't available, I'll look at NOAA, HadCRUT, or Berkeley Earth temperature data, in that order. See also 2022.

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Martin Modrákis predicting NO at 20%

Mildly related https://manifold.markets/MartinModrak/will-cherry-trees-in-kyoto-blossom

https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1616156039619178498

Stevenis predicting YES at 24%

@RyanMoulton NOAA, not pictured here, was at 7% after December data.

Stevenbought Ṁ20 of NO

@StevenK Down a tiny bit after January

Duncnbought Ṁ100 of NO

My guess is that Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai will cool us down, slightly, for a few years.

Stevenbought Ṁ250 of NO

NOAA seems to be saying 14%

Sjlverbought Ṁ20 of NO

Base rate: four out of the last ten years in that dataset were the warmest on record (2014, 2015, 2016, 2020).

Stevenbought Ṁ5 of NO

Looks like La Niña early 2023 and El Niño late 2023, maybe averaging to about neutral. That very weakly suggests "not warmest" to me, but I don't know.

John Smith bought Ṁ10 YES at 29%

Scott Supak bought Ṁ25 YES from 27% to 29%

habakuk bought Ṁ10 YES at 27%

wustep bought Ṁ10 NO at 27%

Steven bought Ṁ100 NO from 29% to 27%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ48/Ṁ48 NO at 29%

Scott Supak bought Ṁ93 YES from 25% to 30%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 25%

Scott Supak bought Ṁ100 YES from 22% to 27%

Mark Ramsbo bought Ṁ10 YES at 22%

Lily bought Ṁ200 NO from 25% to 22%

Luna Nova bought Ṁ10 YES from 24% to 25%

Stan Pinsent bought Ṁ50 YES from 22% to 24%

Odoacre sold Ṁ11 YES at 22%

Mirek bought Ṁ10 YES at 22%

R2D2 bought Ṁ20 NO at 22%

Predictor 🔥 bought Ṁ10 YES from 21% to 22%

Predictor 🔥 sold Ṁ14 NO at 21%

Nadja_L bought Ṁ10 NO at 21%

Nadja_L bought Ṁ10 NO at 21%

Steven bought Ṁ20 NO from 22% to 21%

Nadja_L bought Ṁ8 NO at 22%

jamie sold Ṁ9 YES at 22%

MHKFA sold Ṁ91 NO from 21% to 22%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ18/Ṁ20 YES at 21% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ35/Ṁ100 YES at 20% (cancelled)

Alex Wilson bought Ṁ500 NO from 26% to 18%

Steven bought Ṁ100 NO from 28% to 26%

Steven bought Ṁ100 NO from 30% to 28%

Steven bought Ṁ100 NO from 33% to 30%

Alex Wilson sold Ṁ108 NO from 30% to 33%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 30%

Alex Wilson sold Ṁ962 NO from 19% to 32%

Odoacre bought Ṁ10 YES from 18% to 19%

MHKFA bought Ṁ95 NO from 20% to 18%

Steven sold Ṁ40 NO from 19% to 20%

Steven bought Ṁ100 NO from 20% to 19%

Steven sold Ṁ101 NO from 19% to 20%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ80/Ṁ100 NO at 19% (cancelled)

Steven bought Ṁ100 NO from 22% to 20%

Steven sold Ṁ49 YES from 24% to 22%

Steven sold Ṁ25 YES from 26% to 24%

Jesper Cockx bought Ṁ10 YES from 25% to 26%

Martin Modrák bought Ṁ10 NO at 25%

Steven sold Ṁ12 YES from 26% to 25%

Franklin Baldo bought Ṁ10 YES at 26%

Finn Hambly bought Ṁ10 YES from 25% to 26%

Steven filled limit order Ṁ200/Ṁ200 NO at 29%

Ian Kirby bought Ṁ10 YES from 24% to 25%

Nostradamnedus bought Ṁ10 YES at 24%

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