StevenK avatar
closes Jan 1, 2024
Will 2023 be the warmest year on record?
48%
chance

I will resolve this according to NASA's GISTEMP data here (or wherever it's available), counting an exact match (1.02) as a "no". If GISTEMP isn't available, I'll look at NOAA, HadCRUT, or Berkeley Earth temperature data, in that order. See also 2022.

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Sjlver avatar
Sjlver
bought Ṁ20 of NO

Base rate: four out of the last ten years in that dataset were the warmest on record (2014, 2015, 2016, 2020).

StevenK avatar
Steven
bought Ṁ5 of NO

Looks like La Niña early 2023 and El Niño late 2023, maybe averaging to about neutral. That very weakly suggests "not warmest" to me, but I don't know.