Resolves with PROB=14*Number of months in 2023 that are hottest ever for that month

Basic

Ṁ1882

resolved Jan 12

Resolved as

98%

ALL

Data is latest version of Gisstemp LOTI (land ocean temperature index). This is currently at

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv

if you prefer csv file.

January to May 2023 were not hottest for those months but June 2023 was. So it may seem that 7*14=98 is the highest possible value. However it is not impossible that the numbers get revised so theoretically possible for it to be 8 months or more in which case the maximum will be capped at 100% because cannot resolve at more than that.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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2023    87   98  120  100   94  108  119  119  148  134  143  137    117 112     88  105  115  141  2023
Year   Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec    J-D D-N    DJF  MAM  JJA  SON  Year

7 of these are hottest ever for that month so resolves 14*7=98

This is virtually certain to resolve to 98%. The linked data already shows that Jun - Oct were the hottest ever, and even though it's not listed on the NASA website, November was also the hottest ever (in fact, every single day in November was the hottest ever for the full time we've had data for individual days: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world). And December is on track to be way hotter than any previous December.

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