@ChristopherRandles Data is updated, should resolve 100% YES (147 for September):

118 + 119 + 147 = 384

384 - 270 = 114

October only

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/pays-2-for-each-001c-october-2023-t

Pays 2% for each 0.01C October 2023 temperature anomaly is above 1.00C per Gistemp versus 1951-1980 base period

50% chance. Data in no smoothing column at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv or https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt (or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data) Resolution If the anomaly versus 1951 to 1980 base period per gistemp LOTI is reported as 1.50C or higher this claim pays 100% If the anomaly versus 1951 to 1980 base period per gistemp LOTI is reported as 1.00C or lower this claim pays 0% If 1.01C claims pays 2% If 1.02C claims pays 4% and so on.

Nothing to update on but I forgot to include my prediction: 119+124+140-270 = 113

I forgot to bet in this market when I had already had done the work…oops

Aug reported as 124 while July revised to 119. Totals 63 above 90.

Another 124 would take it to 87. oops 97

Aug was 22 above previous highest for Aug 102, if that is gap to highest is maintained in September then question would resolve at 84. oops 94

Maybe we should expect it to cool off a little and question's % chance is about right?

@ChristopherRandles I think you meant 97 and 94 where you said 87 and 84. As discussed on the other market, this month will almost certainly be above 130, implying a 100% payout.

July reported as 118 so 28 above 90 but might be revised before closure of this market.

28*3= 84 but that is really high and perhaps temperatures will cool off a bit to be less anomalously high.