Resolves PROB=(Gisstemp global mean LOTI anomaly vs 1951-80 for July+Aug+Sept 2023 -270)

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Ṁ110

resolved Oct 13

Resolved

YES

ALL

Latest version of NASA's Gistemp Land ocean Temperature index (LOTI) will be used. This is currently v4 available at

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/T_AIRS/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv

The formula will be capped at 0 and 100 as the claim cannot be resolved outside this range. If necessary, the anomalies are to be converted to 0.01C amounts.

Examples

July 2023 120

August 2023 110

September 2023 105

Then 120+110+105-270=65 so the claim resolves with PROB = 65%

July 2023 140

August 2023 130

September 2023 120

Then 140+130+120-270=120 which is above 100 so the claim is capped and resolves with PROB = 100%

In the csv file, temperature anomalies are reported in degree C rather than 0.01C amounts eg 1.20C for March 2023. If reported in this format then the anomaly of 1.20 would be multiplied by 100 to convert to 0.01C amounts so 120 would be used in the formula.

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predicted YES

@ChristopherRandles Data is updated, should resolve 100% YES (147 for September):

118 + 119 + 147 = 384

384 - 270 = 114

October only

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/pays-2-for-each-001c-october-2023-t

Pays 2% for each 0.01C October 2023 temperature anomaly is above 1.00C per Gistemp versus 1951-1980 base period

50% chance. Data in no smoothing column at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv or https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt (or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data) Resolution If the anomaly versus 1951 to 1980 base period per gistemp LOTI is reported as 1.50C or higher this claim pays 100% If the anomaly versus 1951 to 1980 base period per gistemp LOTI is reported as 1.00C or lower this claim pays 0% If 1.01C claims pays 2% If 1.02C claims pays 4% and so on.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

Nothing to update on but I forgot to include my prediction: 119+124+140-270 = 113

bought Ṁ1 of YES

I forgot to bet in this market when I had already had done the work…oops

bought Ṁ23 of YES

Aug reported as 124 while July revised to 119. Totals 63 above 90.

Another 124 would take it to 87. oops 97

Aug was 22 above previous highest for Aug 102, if that is gap to highest is maintained in September then question would resolve at 84. oops 94

Maybe we should expect it to cool off a little and question's % chance is about right?

bought Ṁ300 of YES

@ChristopherRandles I think you meant 97 and 94 where you said 87 and 84. As discussed on the other market, this month will almost certainly be above 130, implying a 100% payout.