Latest version of NASA's Gistemp Land ocean Temperature index (LOTI) will be used. This is currently v4 available at
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
or
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/T_AIRS/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv
The formula will be capped at 0 and 100 as the claim cannot be resolved outside this range. If necessary, the anomalies are to be converted to 0.01C amounts.
Examples
July 2023 120
August 2023 110
September 2023 105
Then 120+110+105-270=65 so the claim resolves with PROB = 65%
July 2023 140
August 2023 130
September 2023 120
Then 140+130+120-270=120 which is above 100 so the claim is capped and resolves with PROB = 100%
In the csv file, temperature anomalies are reported in degree C rather than 0.01C amounts eg 1.20C for March 2023. If reported in this format then the anomaly of 1.20 would be multiplied by 100 to convert to 0.01C amounts so 120 would be used in the formula.
1,000
3.00@ChristopherRandles Data is updated, should resolve 100% YES (147 for September):
118 + 119 + 147 = 384
384 - 270 = 114
Aug reported as 124 while July revised to 119. Totals 63 above 90.
Another 124 would take it to 87. oops 97
Aug was 22 above previous highest for Aug 102, if that is gap to highest is maintained in September then question would resolve at 84. oops 94
Maybe we should expect it to cool off a little and question's % chance is about right?
@ChristopherRandles I think you meant 97 and 94 where you said 87 and 84. As discussed on the other market, this month will almost certainly be above 130, implying a 100% payout.