Latest version of NASA's Gistemp Land ocean Temperature index (LOTI) will be used. This is currently v4 available at

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

or

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/T_AIRS/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv

The formula will be capped at 0 and 100 as the claim cannot be resolved outside this range. If necessary, the anomalies are to be converted to 0.01C amounts.

Examples

July 2023 120

August 2023 110

September 2023 105

Then 120+110+105-270=65 so the claim resolves with PROB = 65%

July 2023 140

August 2023 130

September 2023 120

Then 140+130+120-270=120 which is above 100 so the claim is capped and resolves with PROB = 100%

In the csv file, temperature anomalies are reported in degree C rather than 0.01C amounts eg 1.20C for March 2023. If reported in this format then the anomaly of 1.20 would be multiplied by 100 to convert to 0.01C amounts so 120 would be used in the formula.