Will 2022 be the warmest year on record?

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Every year, NASA releases data about the Global Temperature Index - a measurement of the change in global surface temperature in comparison to its historical long-term average. According to that data, 2016 was the hottest year on record, with an increase of 1.02°C in temperature. If data for the 2022 Global Temperature Index shows an increase of more than 1.02°C in global surface temperature, indicating it to be the hottest year on record, this market will be resolved as "YES". Source: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

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Their front page hasn't been updated yet, but the dataset here shows 0.89°C for 2022.

predicted NO

Although it is pointing to NO, awaiting final data prior to resolution to resolve using my criteria in the description.

<1% top 5

NOAA after October data: <0.1% chance of warmest, <2% chance of top 5

<0.1% according to NOAA after September data

@StevenK Starting from NOAA's graph, I made a visualization of what a positive resolution would have to look like:

There are minor differences between datasets, but I can't see them mattering.

predicted NO

@StevenK Oops, I misinterpreted the y axis as giving the temperature in each month instead of the average temperature from January through each month. My visualization is wrong. For a positive resolution, the black graph only has to catch up with the orange graph. This is harder than it looks, because it averages over increasingly many months as the year goes on, so each additional month has less of an impact. I still think the probability of a positive resolution is near zero.

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