BBC News - 2023 confirmed as world's hottest year on record
Getting to too high a percentage? How about betting on how hot?
e.g.
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/pays-10-for-each-001c-2023-temperat
What data is used for this question?
Also
If it is 1st warmest in table data but text indicates something like: The difference is within the margin of error so that they cannot say for certain whether 2016 2020 or 2023 was the hottest year, does this resolve yes?
If it shows as 1= in table does it resolve no or 50% or yes?
@ChristopherRandles Relevant comment by the market creator on another market: https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-2023-be-the-hottest-year-on-re#DDTlxXLW9PD5pwhx0ky8
(but it would be nice to have it confirmed)
Arbitrage with
/itsTomekK/will-2023-be-the-hottest-year-on-re (NOAA data)
/StevenK/will-2023-be-the-warmest-year-on-re (NASA GISTEMP data)
@LukeHanks If it gets that hot and we all take our shirts off we will start a skin cancer pandemic 🤣