Several extremely critical articles regarding effective altruism have been published in widely read newspapers in December 2023, with the latest at time of publication being in Politico. The Politico article refers to effective altruism as a doomsday "cult" and states that the EA movement has "infiltrated" Washington DC.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/30/ai-debate-culture-clash-dc-silicon-valley-00133323
The article quotes people, such as @RobinHanson, who were effective altruists but left the movement due to its shift in focus.
Earlier, in November 2023, it was revealed that effective altruist groups had spent considerable funds on marketing research to determine the most effective way to pursuade the public that AI is risky.
This market will resolve to YES if a coordinated effort is made before December 31, 2024 by effective altruists to rebrand the effective altruism movement.
The rebranded movement must:
Consist of largely the same people as the current EA movement, but some people viewed as toxic may be fired from key positions
Have a different name than "Effective Altruism"
Focus on more than 90% of the same issues and topics that EA focused on December 31, 2023
Not be a "splinter group" as defined in the following market: /SteveSokolowski/will-effective-altruism-splinter-in
The rebranded movement may moderate its positions on its current topics and still qualify for YES. It may also publicly moderate its positions but privately pursue the same aggressive policy positions. It does not require a new logo.
Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.
I do feel that a better name for the movement would be “empirical altruism” as in “verifiably effective altruism” in that it disdains more instinctive altruistic acts (even as those might be just as effective on the basis of having been honed by natural selection— the problem is that that’s a largely unfalsifiable claim)
@EricBolton I actually like that name. But as a PR exercise, I think that both words are tainted and that your name doesn't go far enough.