Basic
23
1.5k
2025
20%
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Several extremely critical articles regarding effective altruism have been published in widely read newspapers in December 2023, with the latest at time of publication being in Politico. The Politico article refers to effective altruism as a doomsday "cult" and states that the EA movement has "infiltrated" Washington DC.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/30/ai-debate-culture-clash-dc-silicon-valley-00133323

The article quotes people, such as @RobinHanson, who were effective altruists but left the movement due to its shift in focus.

This market will resolve to YES if these people, or others who believe in the founding values of effective altruism (what the Politico article refers to as "malaria nets" and other near-term charitable contributions), become frustrated and found a new movement before December 31, 2024.

The new movement must:

  • Have a different name than Effective Altruism

  • Be centered on charitable giving and not just be a joke group (although it may start as one)

  • Disavow "longtermism" - or, specifically, the focus on the unborn or uncreated over currently alive beings

  • Disagree with @EliezerYudkowsky's extreme viewpoints on AI safety - at minimum, by disavowing his statement on nuclear weapons

  • Have at least 100 people calling themseves members of the group, with 100 of them agreeing with all of these minimal criteria

Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.

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(woops wrong question)

Thank you for writing this question. I think it’s a valuable question to have a probability estimate of.

Can you elaborate on point 4? Maybe link to the nuclear weapons statement?

@robm @EliezerYudkowsky stated once that it would be OK to start a chain reaction that would kill most humans, because a nuclear war would have some survivors while an AI catastrophe would have none:

https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/

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