One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%? | Manifold

One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

Plus

21

Ṁ4174

2025

55%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves on Aug 1, 2025. 50% is included, i.e. if the probability is exactly 50%, this resolves YES.

When I get enough mana I'll make a second market about being below 50%. I'll link it here when that happens.

Some explanation for this troll-y market:

The market encourages people to bet "with the flow". If the probability is far enough away from 50%, it becomes more and more likely for the question to resolve that way, and people won't want to bet in the other direction. However, when the probability gets extreme enough (maybe 80%), the reward for betting becomes so small that some risk-enjoying traders might want to spend huge sums on reversing the direction of the market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

I'll bet to get this started - what do you guys think will be the outcome?

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