One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

73

1.3kṀ55k

resolved Aug 2

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves on Aug 1, 2025. 50% is included, i.e. if the probability is exactly 50%, this resolves YES.

When I get enough mana I'll make a second market about being below 50%. I'll link it here when that happens.

Some explanation for this troll-y market:

The market encourages people to bet "with the flow". If the probability is far enough away from 50%, it becomes more and more likely for the question to resolve that way, and people won't want to bet in the other direction. However, when the probability gets extreme enough (maybe 80%), the reward for betting becomes so small that some risk-enjoying traders might want to spend huge sums on reversing the direction of the market.

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Resolved! 11:59pm trading goes wild LMAO

I am the luckiest mfer

filled a Ṁ20 NO at 79% order

FUCK

My shitty airplane internet

i set my limit order but it said "cannot expire in the past" so it didn't go through

💀

@Bayesian rip :(

@Bayesian how much was the limit order lol

@Bayesian at 50% YES?

@jatloe 51% but yeah

bought Ṁ500 NO

gg

bought Ṁ1,500 YES

lol ggs

opened a Ṁ25 NO at 99.0% order

guys what if we let it just resolve to 80

i wonder how many people are watching this market right now

bought Ṁ40 NO

The more this market goes up the more incentive @Bayesian has to switch sides...

I definitely think the correct market participant strategy is to fill my exit limit order so I can switch sides

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

I'm about to go on a 4 hour flight but I'm in for 1k YES please resolve Yes

filled aṀ20,000NO at 35% order

@Robincvgr what?

@Robincvgr if you want exit liquidity a second time LMK..

filled aṀ3,500YES at 52% order

@Robincvgr time for battle!

@Bayesian 1.6 million mana balance versus 30k mana balance, who will win

opened a Ṁ3,000 YES at 35% order

(i offer exit liquidity at 35%)

Me:

Receives email - "Some of the markets you follow are moving!"

Thinks "oh, is this some AI stuff again?"

Sees the market I made a year and forgot about

Thinks "OH SHIT, THAT RESOLVES TODAY??"

People are also trading

At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will Manifold users that respond to the poll asking if it will reach 500 votes by EOY 2025 predict correctly?

Will Manifold allow questions to be resolved by a poll of random users before 2025?

What percentage of current Manifold.Markets users asking questions that resolve in 2030 will close out their own post?

Will I create a real-money question for Manifold by the end of 2026?

Related questions

At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will Manifold users that respond to the poll asking if it will reach 500 votes by EOY 2025 predict correctly?

Will Manifold allow questions to be resolved by a poll of random users before 2025?

What percentage of current Manifold.Markets users asking questions that resolve in 2030 will close out their own post?

Will I create a real-money question for Manifold by the end of 2026?

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