Although the effective altruism movement is being covered by mainstream news outlets, opinion polling about the movement is lacking.
On November 28, 2023, at 8:00am EST, I posted polls on Manifold (https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/do-you-approve-or-disapprove-of-the) and X (https://twitter.com/SteveSokolowsk2/status/1729536306923872307). The polls and the markets will close on December 1, 2023, at 8:00am EST. I will cast one vote in each poll, will not bet on either market, and will not express an opinion about the movement in any market or poll comments.
Publicity for the polls, if any, will be conducted by stating that we are conducting scientific research and the public's help is requested - and I would recommend but cannot enforce that others publicizing the polls use the same language.
The exact question text for both polls will be:
Do you approve or disapprove of the Effective Altruism movement?
There will be three answers:
Approve
Disapprove
No opinion / Never heard of the movement
This market will resolve to PROB, with the percentage equal to the percentage of X users who selected the "Approve" option in the poll divided by the total of (Approve + Disapprove).
SEE ALSO: /SteveSokolowski/what-is-the-approval-rating-of-effe
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ42 | |
| 2 | Ṁ32 | |
| 3 | Ṁ31 | |
| 4 | Ṁ25 | |
| 5 | Ṁ12 |
RESOLUTION: At the time of market close, the vote was as follows. Therefore, the result (rounded) is 71%.
I had expected the results of the X poll to show that there is a significant divergence in perception between insiders and outsiders, but people from Manifold visited the poll and voted, skewing its results.
