Certain U.S. regions, particularly those with electrically resistive ground, are more susceptible to geomagnetic disturbances from solar flares. This market includes regions such as the Northeast, Midwest, and Pacific Northwest. It resolves to 'Yes' if any region that experiences a power outage affecting at least 50,000 customers for one hour or more due to a solar flare before December 31, 2025. Resolution will be based on reports from the U.S. Department of Energy or major news outlets.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before December 31, 2025, any region in the United States experiences a power outage affecting at least 50,000 customers for one hour or more, directly attributed to a solar flare. Verification will be based on reports from the U.S. Department of Energy or major news outlets.

Background

Historically, significant solar storms have caused notable power outages. The March 1989 geomagnetic storm led to a nine-hour blackout in Quebec, affecting millions. Similarly, the 2003 "Halloween" solar storms resulted in power disruptions in Sweden and damaged transformers in South Africa.

Considerations

The sun's activity follows an approximately 11-year cycle, with periods of increased solar flares and coronal mass ejections. As the sun approaches its solar maximum, the likelihood of geomagnetic storms impacting Earth rises. While utilities have implemented measures to mitigate risks, the potential for significant power outages due to solar flares remains a concern.