This question will resolves as Yes if the Disturbance Storm Time index reaches less than -850 nT (the Carrington event reached between -1600 and -1760 nT) before January 1, 2050.
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looks like a little rebound at the end there. I'm not used to looking at charts for this so I don't know if that means it's peaked or about to spike harder
@Stralor Checked the historical charts. 2006 wasn't even remotely in this league. Sadly the charts start at 57, so no way to check the 56 event
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Carrington is estimated to have been -0.8 to -1.75 micro-Teslas (-800 to -1,750 nT)
@Stralor Yes, but I am guessing they wouldn't have made a profile of it while it was happening, it is just guess work even to the scale, by secondary effects, like induction in telegraph lines
@JussiVilleHeiskanen reporting indicates these were the smaller CMEs. the big one is expected tomorrow, yeah
@Stralor (you might be in a very different timezone, so it might be "today" for you, idk. I don't see what times UTC it's expected)
@Stralor "could impact our planet as early as 16 UTC on 12 November"
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/593/20251111-x5-1-solar-flare-g4-geomagnetic-storm-watch.html
@Stralor there's loads of pictures online but those were the two smaller CMEs. Bigger one will arrive in about 9 hours
@Stralor I don't know enough about this topic. I get the impression that this is not as big as the one in 2024.
