If a solar flare at least as strong as the Carrington Event hits Earth before 2030, will we recover within 15 years? | Manifold

If a solar flare at least as strong as the Carrington Event hits Earth before 2030, will we recover within 15 years?

10

1kṀ353

2030

82%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event

"Recover" means entirely back to normal, same technology level and standards of living as before. (The trend line can be disrupted, obviously.) Averaged across all of humanity. (e.g. one country being slightly worse and another being slightly better won't prevent this from resolving YES.)

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will a Carrington-like event solar storm hit Earth before 2030?

Will a solar flare hit Earth within the next 5 years and cause widespread global disruption?

Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created?

Will the USA experience power outages due to solar flares in 2025?

Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?

Will there be a X15 or higher class solar flare observed during solar cycle 25?

Will a solar storm cause a >24-hour internet outage in any top 10 populous city by 2025 end?

Will there be another G5 class geomagnetic storm from a solar flare during Solar Cycle 25?

Will an abrupt sunlight reduction catastrophe occur before 2100?

Will the Sun be eaten by 2030?

Sort by:

Do you believe in material implication?

predictedYES

@Najawin The rule of logic? ...Yes?

@IsaacKing So then if no such flare occurs this will obviously resolve true, rather than N/A, because that's what material implication means, right?

predictedYES

@Najawin No, this is a conditional market. Nice try though. :)

To make things clear, when would you say we "recovered" from the COVID-19 pandemic? Late 2021? Early 2022? Late 2022? Early 2023?

predictedYES

@ArmandodiMatteo Hmm, good question. I don't really keep up with economics data, so others would know better than me, but as far as the US goes my impression is early 2023?

People are also trading

Will a Carrington-like event solar storm hit Earth before 2030?

Will a solar flare hit Earth within the next 5 years and cause widespread global disruption?

Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created?

Will the USA experience power outages due to solar flares in 2025?

Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?

Will there be a X15 or higher class solar flare observed during solar cycle 25?

Will a solar storm cause a >24-hour internet outage in any top 10 populous city by 2025 end?

Will there be another G5 class geomagnetic storm from a solar flare during Solar Cycle 25?

Will an abrupt sunlight reduction catastrophe occur before 2100?

Will the Sun be eaten by 2030?

Related questions

Will a Carrington-like event solar storm hit Earth before 2030?

Will a solar flare hit Earth within the next 5 years and cause widespread global disruption?

Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created?

Will the USA experience power outages due to solar flares in 2025?

Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?

Will there be a X15 or higher class solar flare observed during solar cycle 25?

Will a solar storm cause a >24-hour internet outage in any top 10 populous city by 2025 end?

Will there be another G5 class geomagnetic storm from a solar flare during Solar Cycle 25?

Will an abrupt sunlight reduction catastrophe occur before 2100?

Will the Sun be eaten by 2030?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy