If a solar flare at least as strong as the Carrington Event hits Earth before 2030, will we recover within 15 years? | Manifold

If a solar flare at least as strong as the Carrington Event hits Earth before 2030, will we recover within 15 years?

Plus

10

Ṁ353

2030

82%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event

"Recover" means entirely back to normal, same technology level and standards of living as before. (The trend line can be disrupted, obviously.) Averaged across all of humanity. (e.g. one country being slightly worse and another being slightly better won't prevent this from resolving YES.)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Do you believe in material implication?

predictedYES

@Najawin The rule of logic? ...Yes?

@IsaacKing So then if no such flare occurs this will obviously resolve true, rather than N/A, because that's what material implication means, right?

predictedYES

@Najawin No, this is a conditional market. Nice try though. :)

To make things clear, when would you say we "recovered" from the COVID-19 pandemic? Late 2021? Early 2022? Late 2022? Early 2023?

predictedYES

@ArmandodiMatteo Hmm, good question. I don't really keep up with economics data, so others would know better than me, but as far as the US goes my impression is early 2023?

Related questions

Will a Carrington-like event solar storm hit Earth before 2030?

Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?

Will the sun explode before 2025?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created?

Will a solar flare hit Earth within the next 5 years and cause widespread global disruption?

If another Carrington Event hit the US, would most people be using electricity again in less than a week?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2035?

Will there be another G5 class geomagnetic storm from a solar flare during Solar Cycle 25?

Related questions

Will a Carrington-like event solar storm hit Earth before 2030?

Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created?

Will a massive solar storm occur before 2050?

Will a solar flare hit Earth within the next 5 years and cause widespread global disruption?

Will the sun explode before 2025?

If another Carrington Event hit the US, would most people be using electricity again in less than a week?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?

Will we get fusion reactors before 2035?

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Will there be another G5 class geomagnetic storm from a solar flare during Solar Cycle 25?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules