Will a solar flare hit Earth within the next 5 years and cause widespread global disruption?
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612
2028
14%
chance

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A solar flare resulting in "likely one of the largest solar radio events ever recorded" occurred a few days ago, but since I didn't hear about it except from space enthusiasts, I don't think it can be said to have caused widespread global disruption. It did interfere with some radio stuff, though.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/dec/15/nasa-solar-flare-images-radio-interference

Widespread global disruption should be defined better. Radio blackout, internet blackout, electrical blackout, etc.

predicts YES